Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Gregory River at Riversleigh


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Product list for Gregory River at Riversleigh


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Historical and exceedance probability for Gregory River at Riversleigh(  )

Historical Observations
Average (1968+) (GL)Last year (2012) (GL)Observed (2013) (GL)Minimum (2005) (GL)10 yr average (2003+) (GL)Maximum (1971) (GL)
Mar121.85220.70816.4264.718143.3341146.992
Mar-Apr148.38433.87930.55611.393171.9401369.903
Mar-May163.37749.53447.81720.643187.2451386.698

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
10208.210262.562
20145.944174.091
30111.886132.809
4087.803102.941
5071.17982.299
6057.22664.573
7045.53451.237
8033.47239.173
9021.92726.866

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1540.323738.719
2409.343531.720
3345.087467.265
4315.999420.075
5295.116388.149
6266.041347.597
7245.487321.525
8232.057298.808
9219.040277.602
10208.210262.562
11200.516250.623
12192.670237.981
13185.358228.748
14177.255219.789
15171.653210.267
16166.295202.942
17159.604194.639
18154.482186.451
19149.851179.461
20145.944174.091
21141.588169.016
22137.206163.494
23133.766159.709
24129.012154.304
25126.135150.983
26123.034148.163
27119.976143.938
28117.099140.642
29114.451136.876
30111.886132.809
31109.240129.158
32106.668125.518
33103.573122.691
34100.914119.944
3598.157116.237
3696.348113.325
3793.974110.464
3891.947107.835
3989.860105.704
4087.803102.941
4185.751100.309
4283.33798.384
4381.98196.779
4480.54494.598
4578.79292.661
4676.77890.518
4775.51088.597
4874.19286.122
4972.72284.274
5071.17982.299
5169.93880.526
5268.30978.772
5367.29776.744
5466.04574.829
5564.68172.909
5663.25170.612
5761.49669.271
5860.02467.929
5958.80566.468
6057.22664.573
6156.06462.706
6254.89561.358
6353.40660.110
6452.33958.592
6551.22057.421
6650.10056.235
6749.07555.136
6847.65553.714
6946.40152.268
7045.53451.237
7144.28549.837
7243.18648.726
7341.92547.433
7440.93746.287
7539.61545.027
7638.58743.910
7737.17942.702
7835.86241.595
7934.68840.542
8033.47239.173
8132.34837.897
8230.93836.692
8329.88835.335
8428.63634.207
8527.80533.235
8626.69031.935
8725.48930.604
8824.24729.539
8923.01428.269
9021.92726.866
9120.62025.564
9219.12924.037
9317.75222.419
9416.42420.460
9514.54119.061
9612.67917.455
9710.59415.113
988.50013.090
994.87710.713


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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