Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Gregory River at Riversleigh


Return to catchment list
Product list for Gregory River at Riversleigh


Download forecast data
Historical and exceedance probability for Gregory River at Riversleigh(  )

Historical Observations
Average (1968+) (GL)Last year (2012) (GL)Observed (2013) (GL)Minimum (1969) (GL)10 yr average (2003+) (GL)Maximum (1977) (GL)
May14.80015.65517.2614.81915.30551.957
May-Jun27.14633.87632.0048.98127.87988.567
May-Jul39.73752.00646.91513.79540.212124.354

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1056.45263.982
2046.80750.776
3041.55143.604
4036.94437.781
5033.21133.312
6030.05329.063
7026.67925.516
8023.12021.940
9018.70717.746

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
187.713114.509
277.14295.166
371.41088.492
467.98483.347
565.09679.722
662.43074.923
760.53871.707
859.25968.811
957.68066.019
1056.45263.982
1155.32362.329
1253.91560.540
1352.76659.207
1451.82957.891
1550.90956.466
1650.06255.351
1749.33354.065
1848.48852.774
1947.52251.651
2046.80750.776
2146.16449.938
2245.65049.013
2345.13648.372
2444.64447.444
2544.09146.866
2643.61746.372
2743.11545.623
2842.61845.033
2942.07744.350
3041.55143.604
3141.00542.925
3240.54242.240
3340.04741.702
3439.61141.175
3539.17740.454
3638.66139.880
3738.25039.311
3837.80538.782
3937.37238.349
4036.94437.781
4136.54537.235
4236.08936.831
4335.78036.492
4435.33236.027
4535.05435.610
4634.70635.144
4734.29834.723
4833.94534.174
4933.64533.759
5033.21133.312
5132.87332.906
5232.53732.501
5332.22532.028
5431.92131.575
5531.57531.117
5631.18730.562
5730.90230.234
5830.61029.903
5930.34229.539
6030.05329.063
6129.72428.587
6229.35028.239
6329.02327.915
6428.70227.516
6528.33727.206
6627.96126.888
6727.60326.591
6827.27326.203
6926.97125.804
7026.67925.516
7126.39525.122
7226.05524.805
7325.63424.433
7425.31024.099
7524.86323.728
7624.49823.395
7724.09023.030
7823.78522.693
7923.44022.368
8023.12021.940
8122.79021.535
8222.32721.147
8321.90720.703
8421.56020.329
8521.18020.002
8620.77119.558
8720.15319.095
8819.72318.719
8919.35318.262
9018.70717.746
9118.16417.258
9217.63716.670
9317.00016.029
9416.38915.226
9515.65814.632
9614.68613.925
9713.56812.842
9812.26411.845
9910.62610.583


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


Creative Commons By Attribution logo
Unless otherwise noted, all material on this page is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution Australia Licence