Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Gregory River at Riversleigh


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Product list for Gregory River at Riversleigh


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Historical and exceedance probability for Gregory River at Riversleigh(  )

Historical Observations
Average (1968+) (GL)Last year (2012) (GL)Observed (2013) (GL)Minimum (1969) (GL)10 yr average (2003+) (GL)Maximum (1977) (GL)
Jun12.34618.22014.7434.16112.57536.609
Jun-Jul24.93736.35129.6548.97624.90772.397
Jun-Aug36.81152.26743.39314.33236.433104.817

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1057.62257.531
2051.43746.473
3047.18840.377
4043.70435.372
5040.74631.490
6037.79527.762
7035.11324.619
8031.94421.415
9027.67817.606

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
177.73198.471
272.28583.006
368.90877.616
466.07973.440
563.90070.485
662.11366.558
760.76663.916
859.51761.529
958.46159.220
1057.62257.531
1156.91756.157
1256.16154.667
1355.63353.555
1454.93852.455
1554.29651.262
1653.69750.326
1753.14649.246
1852.44848.159
1951.97647.212
2051.43746.473
2150.93845.764
2250.42144.981
2350.08344.437
2449.60743.650
2549.07843.159
2648.67242.738
2748.30042.101
2847.96941.597
2947.60741.015
3047.18840.377
3146.74539.797
3246.37739.210
3346.07938.749
3445.75838.296
3545.38837.676
3645.07737.183
3744.72036.692
3844.38136.236
3944.09735.862
4043.70435.372
4143.27934.900
4242.90334.550
4342.58834.256
4442.28833.853
4542.02633.491
4641.77933.086
4741.52632.720
4841.28532.242
4941.00531.881
5040.74631.490
5140.46931.136
5240.14030.782
5339.85630.368
5439.57629.972
5539.27229.570
5638.89829.082
5738.60928.794
5838.35928.503
5938.12228.183
6037.79527.762
6137.52727.342
6237.25427.036
6337.02126.749
6436.74426.396
6536.47326.120
6636.19625.839
6735.91125.575
6835.65425.230
6935.37024.875
7035.11324.619
7134.83424.268
7234.52023.985
7334.17123.652
7433.87123.354
7533.53823.021
7633.25122.723
7733.01922.396
7832.69322.093
7932.32421.800
8031.94421.415
8131.53821.050
8231.15420.699
8330.81320.298
8430.39019.959
8529.99919.663
8629.60319.259
8728.99618.838
8828.53018.495
8928.13618.078
9027.67817.606
9127.10717.158
9226.52516.618
9326.02516.027
9425.27215.284
9524.48614.732
9623.48314.074
9722.58813.060
9821.18912.121
9918.98210.924


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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