Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Gregory River at Riversleigh


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Product list for Gregory River at Riversleigh


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Historical and exceedance probability for Gregory River at Riversleigh(  )

Historical Observations
Average (1968+) (GL)Last year (2012) (GL)Observed (2013) (GL)Minimum (1971) (GL)10 yr average (2003+) (GL)Maximum (1977) (GL)
Jul12.59118.13114.9125.16412.33235.788
Jul-Aug24.46634.04728.6519.98723.85868.207
Jul-Sep35.31547.99739.56414.06833.94098.248

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1049.25455.173
2046.66844.705
3044.71838.920
4043.07134.161
5041.65130.463
6040.28926.905
7038.84423.900
8037.17220.831
9034.73417.175

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
156.65993.708
254.63279.185
353.58874.115
452.49370.183
551.61167.399
650.84563.697
750.41261.204
850.02258.950
949.64156.770
1049.25455.173
1148.90453.874
1248.60452.465
1348.31051.413
1447.98050.372
1547.74649.243
1647.54348.357
1747.30347.333
1847.06846.303
1946.88945.406
2046.66844.705
2146.43044.033
2246.24143.291
2346.03942.775
2445.87042.027
2545.64241.562
2645.49241.162
2745.33440.557
2845.11240.079
2944.93339.526
3044.71838.920
3144.56438.369
3244.37437.811
3344.24537.373
3444.10036.942
3543.93736.353
3643.75835.884
3743.58735.417
3843.40834.983
3943.24534.627
4043.07134.161
4142.92433.711
4242.80333.378
4342.67833.098
4442.49432.714
4542.38832.369
4642.24531.984
4742.10431.635
4841.95531.179
4941.80830.835
5041.65130.463
5141.52330.125
5241.36929.787
5341.22629.392
5441.10229.014
5540.94928.631
5640.81928.165
5740.69427.890
5840.53627.612
5940.40327.307
6040.28926.905
6140.14726.504
6239.99226.211
6339.84925.937
6439.70425.599
6539.50525.336
6639.36525.067
6739.22724.815
6839.10024.485
6938.98024.146
7038.84423.900
7138.68823.564
7238.51623.294
7338.35722.975
7438.19122.689
7538.00722.371
7637.85522.085
7737.68121.772
7837.53121.481
7937.35321.201
8037.17220.831
8136.96820.481
8236.74820.145
8336.51819.761
8436.31519.435
8536.10619.150
8635.90218.763
8735.66818.359
8835.40418.029
8935.03517.628
9034.73417.175
9134.47616.744
9234.11716.224
9333.76515.656
9433.35114.940
9532.85514.408
9632.31813.774
9731.67012.795
9830.81611.888
9929.67710.730


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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