Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Gregory River at Riversleigh


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Product list for Gregory River at Riversleigh


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Historical and exceedance probability for Gregory River at Riversleigh(  )

Historical Observations
Average (1968+) (GL)Last year (2012) (GL)Observed (2013) (GL)Minimum (1971) (GL)10 yr average (2003+) (GL)Maximum (1977) (GL)
Aug11.87515.91613.7394.82311.52632.419
Aug-Sep22.72429.86624.6528.90421.60862.460
Aug-Oct35.24143.90135.15214.61230.96593.028

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1053.19857.055
2048.50345.561
3045.22739.286
4042.71434.172
5040.35530.232
6038.27126.473
7035.96523.324
8033.40820.136
9030.15116.381

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
167.382100.523
263.42583.960
360.55578.225
458.98673.796
557.43970.670
656.35866.527
755.51363.747
854.45161.241
953.80858.822
1053.19857.055
1152.49655.620
1252.04254.066
1351.44452.907
1450.93451.762
1550.46050.522
1650.03849.551
1749.63148.431
1849.28447.305
1948.85246.325
2048.50345.561
2148.13744.829
2247.82644.021
2347.55243.461
2447.18942.649
2546.89842.144
2646.54041.711
2746.17241.056
2845.86940.539
2945.54239.941
3045.22739.286
3144.96838.692
3244.72538.091
3344.44437.619
3444.21037.155
3543.98136.522
3643.70336.018
3743.43735.518
3843.24235.052
3942.91634.671
4042.71434.172
4142.48733.691
4242.26233.336
4342.00933.037
4441.80232.627
4541.58332.260
4641.28631.849
4741.09631.477
4840.83430.993
4940.62430.627
5040.35530.232
5140.16829.874
5239.96229.516
5339.71029.097
5439.50628.697
5539.27228.292
5639.05527.801
5738.86027.510
5838.65927.217
5938.49326.895
6038.27126.473
6138.02026.051
6237.78025.743
6337.59825.455
6437.38725.101
6537.14824.825
6636.90524.543
6736.68224.279
6836.38623.935
6936.15623.580
7035.96523.324
7135.76322.973
7235.54122.691
7335.27922.360
7435.03722.062
7534.79221.732
7634.48221.435
7734.17921.110
7834.00920.809
7933.68320.519
8033.40820.136
8133.16719.775
8232.92519.428
8332.59919.032
8432.18018.697
8531.90018.404
8631.53518.006
8731.23917.592
8830.90017.254
8930.55716.844
9030.15116.381
9129.71715.942
9229.28715.414
9328.76514.837
9428.24114.113
9527.58313.576
9626.91112.938
9725.94511.958
9824.80111.054
9923.5189.906


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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