Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Gregory River at Riversleigh


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Product list for Gregory River at Riversleigh


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Historical and exceedance probability for Gregory River at Riversleigh(  )

Historical Observations
Average (1968+) (GL)Last year (2012) (GL)Observed (2013) (GL)Minimum (1969) (GL)10 yr average (2003+) (GL)Maximum (1985) (GL)
Sep10.84913.95010.9135.26410.0825.741
Sep-Oct23.36627.98421.4139.95619.43911.246
Sep-Nov45.26845.84845.44914.43035.531165.184

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1081.02778.134
2065.59760.075
3056.61450.525
4049.54142.928
5043.79037.203
6038.62631.857
7033.76027.476
8028.37723.141
9022.61818.183

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1134.838151.421
2119.021122.701
3107.738112.967
499.182105.531
594.416100.328
690.81993.491
787.52688.943
885.12384.871
983.12280.967
1081.02778.134
1178.92375.842
1277.41173.372
1375.39771.539
1473.63369.734
1572.51767.786
1670.85766.266
1769.37464.519
1868.12162.769
1966.97561.254
2065.59760.075
2164.57058.949
2263.82857.710
2362.92556.852
2462.12955.614
2561.16154.845
2660.32554.188
2759.53353.194
2858.33952.412
2957.42751.510
3056.61450.525
3155.65749.633
3254.76148.733
3354.07448.028
3453.47147.338
3552.81246.397
3652.35645.650
3751.69644.909
3850.93844.223
3950.25743.662
4049.54142.928
4148.91742.223
4248.26441.703
4347.57041.267
4446.95740.669
4546.37240.135
4645.87839.538
4745.35139.000
4844.86138.300
4944.29237.772
5043.79037.203
5143.20636.689
5242.60836.175
5342.15335.577
5441.60235.006
5541.06034.429
5640.63533.732
5740.00633.321
5839.51832.906
5939.02932.452
6038.62631.857
6138.17931.265
6237.73230.833
6337.22230.431
6436.65029.937
6536.25929.553
6635.75429.161
6735.28528.795
6834.71228.318
6934.27427.828
7033.76027.476
7133.30126.993
7232.73026.607
7332.17326.153
7431.80025.747
7531.23725.297
7630.64524.894
7729.96424.453
7829.43924.046
7928.92123.655
8028.37723.141
8127.85722.656
8227.41222.193
8326.95921.665
8426.33021.220
8525.76220.832
8625.19020.307
8724.56519.762
8824.02019.320
8923.24118.784
9022.61818.183
9121.82717.614
9220.96016.934
9320.11216.196
9419.40615.276
9518.46114.600
9617.25113.801
9716.30212.587
9814.99811.483
9912.13110.103


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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