Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Gregory River at Riversleigh


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Historical and exceedance probability for Gregory River at Riversleigh ( Apr 2014 )

Historical Observations
Average (1968+) (GL)Last year (2013) (GL)Observed (2014) (GL)Minimum (2004) (GL)10 yr average (2004+) (GL)Maximum (1971) (GL)
Apr26.23714.1307.0113.14629.107222.911
Apr-May41.28431.39114.5677.40045.201239.706
Apr-Jun53.83746.13422.79513.17058.351245.515

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1096.478
2070.422
3057.233
4047.085
5039.666
6032.940
7027.590
8022.461
9016.826

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1213.107
2165.654
3150.040
4138.289
5130.163
6119.612
7112.676
8106.525
9100.684
1096.478
1193.098
1289.479
1386.807
1484.190
1581.381
1679.200
1776.706
1874.221
1972.080
2070.422
2168.844
2267.113
2365.920
2464.204
2563.143
2662.237
2760.873
2859.802
2958.571
3057.233
3156.024
3254.810
3353.862
3452.935
3551.678
3650.683
3749.700
3848.791
3948.051
4047.085
4146.160
4245.480
4344.910
4444.133
4543.439
4642.667
4741.972
4841.071
4940.394
5039.666
5139.010
5238.357
5337.599
5436.878
5536.150
5635.275
5734.761
5834.243
5933.678
6032.940
6132.207
6231.676
6331.181
6430.576
6530.107
6629.629
6729.184
6828.606
6928.015
7027.590
7127.011
7226.548
7326.007
7425.524
7524.990
7624.514
7723.996
7823.518
7923.060
8022.461
8121.899
8221.363
8320.756
8420.246
8519.804
8619.208
8718.592
8818.094
8917.495
9016.826
9116.198
9215.452
9314.649
9413.658
9512.937
9612.094
9710.831
989.702
998.322


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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