Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Gregory River at Riversleigh


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Historical and exceedance probability for Gregory River at Riversleigh ( May 2014 )

Historical Observations
Average (1968+) (GL)Last year (2013) (GL)Observed (2014) (GL)Minimum (1969) (GL)10 yr average (2004+) (GL)Maximum (1977) (GL)
May14.85817.2617.5564.81916.09451.957
May-Jun27.25832.00415.7858.98129.24488.567
May-Jul39.90246.91525.29013.79542.165124.354

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1045.87363.982
2037.73550.776
3033.06943.604
4029.33937.781
5026.13333.312
6023.45529.063
7020.75025.516
8017.90021.940
9014.48117.746

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
171.871114.509
263.24695.166
358.39288.492
455.36483.347
552.88979.722
650.95474.923
749.50171.707
848.14868.811
947.16066.019
1045.87363.982
1144.76362.329
1243.66460.540
1342.49959.207
1441.75357.891
1540.90856.466
1640.21855.351
1739.59954.065
1838.92252.774
1938.25651.651
2037.73550.776
2137.15649.938
2236.63149.013
2336.16948.372
2435.72947.444
2535.27846.866
2634.81846.372
2734.40245.623
2833.98345.033
2933.52644.350
3033.06943.604
3132.55042.925
3232.14842.240
3331.71341.702
3431.37441.175
3531.01140.454
3630.65739.880
3730.29539.311
3829.96338.782
3929.63238.349
4029.33937.781
4128.97337.235
4228.60836.831
4328.30436.492
4428.03336.027
4527.65135.610
4627.34935.144
4726.99834.723
4826.71234.174
4926.44233.759
5026.13333.312
5125.93332.906
5225.70132.501
5325.40532.028
5425.09131.575
5524.79531.117
5624.54030.562
5724.25530.234
5823.98229.903
5923.71329.539
6023.45529.063
6123.21728.587
6222.92128.239
6322.70527.915
6422.43927.516
6522.11727.206
6621.85226.888
6721.62426.591
6821.31726.203
6921.02025.804
7020.75025.516
7120.43925.122
7220.19124.805
7319.90824.433
7419.64024.099
7519.33623.728
7619.10323.395
7718.78423.030
7818.51622.693
7918.20222.368
8017.90021.940
8117.52321.535
8217.25321.147
8316.95320.703
8416.66120.329
8516.22620.002
8615.92119.558
8715.56919.095
8815.21018.719
8914.85418.262
9014.48117.746
9113.89317.258
9213.43216.670
9312.83316.029
9412.32715.226
9511.82314.632
9611.03013.925
9710.30112.842
989.07711.845
997.66610.583


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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