Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Gregory River at Riversleigh


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Product list for Gregory River at Riversleigh



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Historical and exceedance probability for Gregory River at Riversleigh ( Jan  )

Historical Observations
Average (1968+) (GL)Last year (2008) (GL)Observed (2009) (GL)Minimum (1985) (GL)10 yr average (1999+) (GL)Maximum (1974) (GL)
Jan195.3549.4771633.81513.042166.1362674.582
Jan-Feb378.82253.3642343.51831.519259.3293307.082
Jan-Mar478.78959.7542377.43342.524285.7823463.164

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
101240.746
20749.602
30532.771
40385.067
50289.101
60211.726
70157.242
80111.304
9068.493

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
13569.684
22672.940
32354.597
42109.890
51939.239
61717.414
71572.410
81445.003
91325.558
101240.746
111173.479
121102.406
131050.654
141000.616
15947.667
16907.125
17861.413
18816.612
19778.617
20749.602
21722.325
22692.818
23672.710
24644.156
25626.712
26611.964
27589.983
28572.933
29553.556
30532.771
31514.241
32495.885
33481.715
34468.024
35449.669
36435.354
37421.376
38408.616
39398.328
40385.067
41372.523
42363.404
43355.833
44345.602
45336.562
46326.625
47317.770
48306.439
49298.030
50289.101
51281.139
52273.304
53264.306
54255.867
55247.468
56237.502
57231.724
58225.969
59219.745
60211.726
61203.889
62198.271
63193.101
64186.854
65182.068
66177.244
67172.800
68167.091
69161.328
70157.242
71151.739
72147.400
73142.385
74137.973
75133.157
76128.922
77124.375
78120.240
79116.336
80111.304
81106.658
82102.314
8397.469
8493.482
8590.076
8685.565
8781.001
8877.391
8973.133
9068.493
9164.251
9259.352
9354.258
9448.231
9544.029
9639.311
9732.657
9827.142
9920.972


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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