Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Total Inflows to Lake Nillahcootie


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Exceedance probability for Total Inflows to Lake Nillahcootie( Aug 2014 )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1068.75776.850
2056.01261.041
3046.58350.643
4039.18740.903
5032.36532.463
6026.36623.679
7020.28316.159
8014.5559.389
908.5053.935

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1100.414116.672
292.116104.011
386.37699.037
482.16894.938
578.97091.895
676.47387.648
774.57584.647
872.75281.827
971.02878.994
1068.75776.850
1166.92675.059
1265.20973.067
1364.08871.544
1462.56670.007
1561.20568.303
1660.12266.939
1758.89065.332
1857.85663.679
1956.80462.209
2056.01261.041
2154.90859.903
2253.99058.626
2353.05657.726
2451.98356.403
2551.12855.567
2650.12854.843
2749.20653.732
2848.41652.842
2947.47751.800
3046.58350.643
3145.85949.574
3244.98848.478
3344.23747.606
3443.49946.739
3542.78845.538
3641.87344.568
3741.27143.591
3840.42542.672
3939.78941.911
4039.18740.903
4138.30839.918
4237.64939.182
4336.91038.558
4436.30837.696
4535.72736.913
4635.03636.030
4734.11535.223
4833.46834.160
4932.94333.348
5032.36532.463
5131.86131.654
5231.17630.838
5330.57129.877
5429.97528.950
5529.39928.003
5628.87126.846
5728.27926.159
5827.63025.461
5926.88624.692
6026.36623.679
6125.78622.664
6225.22121.922
6324.57121.228
6424.10320.376
6523.54919.714
6622.90519.038
6722.27218.409
6821.60717.591
6920.89816.756
7020.28316.159
7119.72115.349
7219.25614.707
7318.66013.963
7418.01613.307
7517.34012.591
7616.85611.962
7716.28311.290
7815.75710.683
7915.12910.114
8014.5559.389
8113.8518.730
8213.2178.124
8312.5707.463
8412.0086.931
8511.3916.487
8610.9135.914
8710.3515.355
889.8154.927
899.1634.441
908.5053.935
917.7953.495
927.2523.015
936.5962.549
945.8842.044
955.1311.722
964.3221.391
973.6250.981
982.9140.692
991.9100.425


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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