Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Total Inflows to Lake Nillahcootie


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Exceedance probability for Total Inflows to Lake Nillahcootie( Sep 2014 )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1042.38059.043
2030.10644.419
3023.32634.930
4018.15926.330
5014.18219.387
6011.04613.036
708.2908.482
805.8164.967
903.3692.281

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
175.38496.045
265.85384.276
360.20179.653
455.74375.844
552.55173.016
650.10169.070
747.96266.282
846.21663.663
943.93461.032
1042.38059.043
1140.79357.382
1239.23555.535
1337.88854.123
1436.58952.700
1534.98551.122
1634.05149.861
1733.19748.376
1832.16046.849
1931.09445.495
2030.10644.419
2129.31243.373
2228.58942.200
2327.95741.375
2427.32840.164
2526.59739.400
2625.91338.740
2725.16437.728
2824.55136.920
2923.97635.976
3023.32634.930
3122.78433.968
3222.28632.985
3321.72432.205
3421.09131.433
3520.49730.369
3619.94129.514
3719.43328.659
3819.00827.858
3918.58027.199
4018.15926.330
4117.76025.489
4217.30924.865
4316.90224.339
4416.48823.617
4516.10322.968
4615.75922.242
4715.38121.584
4814.90120.728
4914.49620.082
5014.18219.387
5113.78218.760
5213.40818.135
5313.08117.409
5412.74916.721
5512.47516.030
5612.15315.203
5711.85714.720
5811.57814.237
5911.28013.713
6011.04613.036
6110.75312.374
6210.48311.899
6310.19111.463
649.90110.937
659.63610.535
669.29410.131
679.0779.761
688.7959.289
698.5528.815
708.2908.482
718.0628.038
727.8167.691
737.6227.294
747.3676.949
757.1546.578
766.9296.256
776.6675.915
786.3205.610
796.0605.326
805.8164.967
815.5854.642
825.3444.346
835.1124.022
844.8333.763
854.6013.546
864.3033.265
874.1522.990
883.8902.778
893.6282.536
903.3692.281
913.0252.057
922.7801.809
932.5411.565
942.3051.293
951.9961.115
961.7310.928
971.4470.686
981.0960.508
990.6430.334


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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