Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Total Inflows to Lake Nillahcootie


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Exceedance probability for Total Inflows to Lake Nillahcootie(  )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1033.75759.043
2023.87544.419
3018.36634.930
4013.77126.330
5010.54019.387
608.15013.036
705.9698.482
804.1534.967
902.3362.281

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
165.56996.045
255.18184.276
349.69179.653
446.14575.844
543.03073.016
640.80769.070
738.83166.282
837.13663.663
935.61261.032
1033.75759.043
1132.59557.382
1231.33455.535
1330.20954.123
1429.08152.700
1527.97851.122
1627.15349.861
1726.33648.376
1825.42946.849
1924.61045.495
2023.87544.419
2123.32543.373
2222.68642.200
2322.09341.375
2421.48040.164
2520.85639.400
2620.35938.740
2719.93037.728
2819.39236.920
2918.88135.976
3018.36634.930
3117.77033.968
3217.26432.985
3316.72332.205
3416.25631.433
3515.77630.369
3615.36529.514
3714.96128.659
3814.56527.858
3914.18127.199
4013.77126.330
4113.30925.489
4212.91624.865
4312.62324.339
4412.26623.617
4511.90222.968
4611.65222.242
4711.36321.584
4811.06020.728
4910.78920.082
5010.54019.387
5110.30318.760
5210.02218.135
539.83417.409
549.57416.721
559.33616.030
569.07315.203
578.82414.720
588.57014.237
598.35213.713
608.15013.036
617.95012.374
627.77211.899
637.58411.463
647.37410.937
657.12010.535
666.88910.131
676.6609.761
686.4219.289
696.2098.815
705.9698.482
715.7418.038
725.5657.691
735.3967.294
745.2606.949
755.0436.578
764.8546.256
774.7025.915
784.5185.610
794.3555.326
804.1534.967
813.9754.642
823.8284.346
833.6704.022
843.4893.763
853.3113.546
863.0873.265
872.9332.990
882.7272.778
892.5342.536
902.3362.281
912.1502.057
921.9471.809
931.8121.565
941.5801.293
951.4041.115
961.1900.928
970.9180.686
980.6480.508
990.2770.334


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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