Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Total Inflows to Lake Nillahcootie


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Exceedance probability for Total Inflows to Lake Nillahcootie(  )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1015.18338.009
209.92626.211
307.02319.245
405.11113.684
503.7629.775
602.6466.564
701.8294.351
801.0732.575
900.3631.048

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
133.57869.568
227.42959.452
324.65655.486
422.37452.226
520.25549.812
619.12746.453
718.23644.090
816.92541.879
915.97939.670
1015.18338.009
1114.38136.629
1213.82935.104
1313.22733.946
1412.57732.784
1511.94831.506
1611.45830.492
1711.04229.307
1810.69928.102
1910.34627.043
209.92626.211
219.56125.408
229.21924.517
238.88023.896
248.57022.995
258.29922.433
268.00521.950
277.77021.219
287.53720.641
297.25419.974
307.02319.245
316.83018.583
326.59517.918
336.40517.397
346.17816.887
356.02416.196
365.83215.649
375.58815.110
385.40514.613
395.22714.209
405.11113.684
414.97913.183
424.81912.817
434.68712.511
444.49212.097
454.35711.729
464.22011.322
474.06910.959
483.96710.492
493.84710.145
503.7629.775
513.6649.445
523.5559.119
533.4258.745
543.3218.395
553.2128.045
563.0907.631
572.9757.392
582.8727.153
592.7646.895
602.6466.564
612.5786.241
622.4866.011
632.3995.799
642.3185.544
652.2275.350
662.1465.154
672.0574.975
681.9814.745
691.9024.514
701.8294.351
711.7454.133
721.6523.962
731.5693.765
741.4793.593
751.4123.406
761.3323.243
771.2743.068
781.2112.911
791.1352.763
801.0732.575
811.0102.402
820.9492.241
830.8712.064
840.8091.920
850.7421.798
860.6641.637
870.5891.477
880.5181.352
890.4451.205
900.3631.048
910.2960.906
920.2170.745
930.1450.581
940.0750.391
950.0000.262
960.0000.120
970.0000.000
980.0000.000
990.0000.000


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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