Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Total Inflows to Lake Nillahcootie


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Exceedance probability for Total Inflows to Lake Nillahcootie(  )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1053.23879.850
2040.56263.429
3031.78652.646
4024.89742.583
5019.38033.931
6015.13825.046
7011.39017.550
807.77810.775
904.2775.006

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
193.370121.240
280.113108.080
374.235102.909
469.38298.649
565.82295.487
662.90391.072
759.97287.953
857.33485.022
954.98282.078
1053.23879.850
1151.67277.989
1250.36275.919
1349.07974.337
1447.73372.740
1546.54870.970
1645.03769.553
1743.86367.884
1843.05666.167
1941.85964.641
2040.56263.429
2139.42962.248
2238.44760.922
2337.84659.989
2436.99258.616
2536.27457.749
2635.43256.998
2734.60355.846
2833.71354.924
2932.73253.845
3031.78652.646
3130.86651.539
3230.16750.405
3329.46249.502
3428.80948.606
3528.06447.364
3627.35646.363
3726.77745.355
3826.25344.407
3925.53343.622
4024.89742.583
4124.32041.570
4223.78240.813
4323.25240.172
4422.78239.285
4522.10738.483
4621.57637.578
4721.11036.751
4820.50635.663
4920.07834.834
5019.38033.931
5118.82633.107
5218.36932.277
5317.92631.300
5417.54630.360
5517.02929.402
5616.64428.233
5716.28927.539
5815.84126.836
5915.48226.063
6015.13825.046
6114.76524.029
6214.40123.287
6313.95222.594
6413.57521.744
6513.19021.084
6612.82120.412
6712.43319.785
6812.01518.973
6911.66618.143
7011.39017.550
7111.03316.746
7210.70816.108
7310.31415.368
7410.03314.714
759.58013.999
769.20513.371
778.83212.697
788.50612.085
798.10711.511
807.77810.775
817.42210.102
827.0779.479
836.7838.794
846.3858.239
856.0717.772
865.6927.165
875.3766.565
885.0496.101
894.6435.568
904.2775.006
913.8704.510
923.5643.960
933.2583.416
942.8872.812
952.5232.418
962.1322.004
971.7581.472
981.2511.082
990.6500.704


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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