Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Total Inflows to Lake Nillahcootie


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Exceedance probability for Total Inflows to Lake Nillahcootie(  )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1054.08459.043
2041.60044.419
3033.93834.930
4027.18426.330
5021.79619.387
6017.46913.036
7013.4148.482
809.6144.967
905.8782.281

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
190.76396.045
278.17784.276
372.51379.653
467.63575.844
564.85073.016
662.43769.070
759.65666.282
857.78463.663
955.78961.032
1054.08459.043
1152.67557.382
1251.19755.535
1349.74354.123
1448.46752.700
1547.43251.122
1646.25549.861
1745.10148.376
1843.77546.849
1942.44945.495
2041.60044.419
2140.88643.373
2240.00642.200
2339.10441.375
2438.38740.164
2537.65139.400
2636.86438.740
2736.16237.728
2835.45936.920
2934.79435.976
3033.93834.930
3133.11133.968
3232.42132.985
3331.80832.205
3430.82631.433
3530.21630.369
3629.63129.514
3729.05128.659
3828.36327.858
3927.80327.199
4027.18426.330
4126.57525.489
4226.05924.865
4325.44024.339
4424.83323.617
4524.37322.968
4623.92522.242
4723.37121.584
4822.82520.728
4922.27620.082
5021.79619.387
5121.39718.760
5220.85218.135
5320.40217.409
5420.02316.721
5519.69916.030
5619.23515.203
5718.82814.720
5818.32914.237
5917.92213.713
6017.46913.036
6117.09712.374
6216.77311.899
6316.38211.463
6415.91410.937
6515.49310.535
6615.04810.131
6714.6749.761
6814.3159.289
6913.8228.815
7013.4148.482
7112.9458.038
7212.5437.691
7312.1057.294
7411.7056.949
7511.3786.578
7611.0426.256
7710.6045.915
7810.3495.610
7910.0155.326
809.6144.967
819.2964.642
828.9264.346
838.5234.022
848.1423.763
857.7213.546
867.3333.265
877.0442.990
886.6772.778
896.3082.536
905.8782.281
915.4012.057
925.0021.809
934.6661.565
944.2331.293
953.7501.115
963.3990.928
972.7670.686
982.1630.508
991.5070.334


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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