Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Total Inflows to Lake Nillahcootie


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Exceedance probability for Total Inflows to Lake Nillahcootie(  )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
103.5068.183
202.2935.032
301.6473.613
401.2272.618
500.9141.946
600.6561.383
700.4460.973
800.2290.610
900.0130.252

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
18.82226.585
26.83818.390
35.88215.873
45.30614.072
54.80112.823
64.46211.322
74.12810.355
83.8549.509
93.6858.731
103.5068.183
113.3287.751
123.1157.299
133.0196.967
142.8576.643
152.7696.304
162.6376.047
172.5315.750
182.4505.461
192.3735.217
202.2935.032
212.2204.856
222.1314.659
232.0634.535
241.9874.347
251.9144.235
261.8564.138
271.7933.991
281.7433.876
291.6923.752
301.6473.613
311.5913.491
321.5563.366
331.5103.271
341.4673.183
351.4283.056
361.3872.962
371.3452.866
381.3042.780
391.2712.709
401.2272.618
411.1872.531
421.1492.469
431.1182.415
441.0952.345
451.0672.282
461.0312.211
470.9952.150
480.9642.070
490.9342.010
500.9141.946
510.8891.890
520.8581.835
530.8221.768
540.7981.709
550.7731.645
560.7461.575
570.7191.532
580.7011.489
590.6791.444
600.6561.383
610.6351.326
620.6101.285
630.5951.245
640.5751.199
650.5461.163
660.5241.127
670.5041.093
680.4861.049
690.4641.005
700.4460.973
710.4230.931
720.4040.897
730.3830.858
740.3580.823
750.3330.785
760.3140.752
770.2960.715
780.2780.682
790.2510.651
800.2290.610
810.2060.572
820.1860.537
830.1650.497
840.1470.464
850.1260.436
860.1070.398
870.0850.359
880.0610.329
890.0410.292
900.0130.252
910.0000.215
920.0000.172
930.0000.127
940.0000.073
950.0000.034
960.0000.000
970.0000.000
980.0000.000
990.0000.000


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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