Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Total Inflows to Lake Nillahcootie


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Exceedance probability for Total Inflows to Lake Nillahcootie ( Mar 2014 )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
108.614
204.839
303.285
402.266
501.620
601.110
700.760
800.470
900.205

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
135.752
222.844
319.113
416.524
514.771
612.713
711.420
810.310
99.308
108.614
118.075
127.516
137.111
146.720
156.314
166.011
175.664
185.329
195.050
204.839
214.641
224.420
234.282
244.075
253.952
263.848
273.688
283.565
293.433
303.285
313.157
323.026
332.928
342.837
352.707
362.611
372.514
382.428
392.357
402.266
412.181
422.120
432.068
441.999
451.939
461.871
471.813
481.737
491.680
501.620
511.568
521.517
531.455
541.401
551.343
561.280
571.242
581.204
591.164
601.110
611.060
621.024
630.990
640.951
650.920
660.889
670.860
680.823
690.786
700.760
710.725
720.698
730.666
740.638
750.607
760.580
770.552
780.526
790.501
800.470
810.441
820.414
830.383
840.359
850.338
860.310
870.282
880.260
890.234
900.205
910.180
920.150
930.119
940.083
950.058
960.031
970.000
980.000
990.000


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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