Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Total Inflows to Lake Nillahcootie


Return to catchment list
Product list for Total Inflows to Lake Nillahcootie



Download forecast data
Exceedance probability for Total Inflows to Lake Nillahcootie ( May 2014 )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1057.07447.766
2042.26929.632
3032.93520.246
4025.36313.664
5019.4369.515
6014.9186.370
7010.9924.325
807.4112.754
904.2101.458

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1100.063100.998
286.00383.709
377.05276.956
472.76571.425
569.30967.344
666.37861.697
764.09857.753
861.71454.090
959.06750.466
1057.07447.766
1155.23345.543
1253.28743.111
1351.36941.283
1450.04639.469
1548.42337.496
1647.06035.949
1745.80634.166
1844.73732.378
1943.39930.831
2042.26929.632
2141.20028.490
2240.15927.240
2339.13526.380
2438.19525.149
2537.23524.390
2636.38823.746
2735.44322.781
2834.82622.028
2933.92821.170
3032.93520.246
3131.99119.420
3231.28418.600
3330.43817.967
3429.65117.355
3528.91516.535
3628.11115.896
3727.44915.274
3826.68514.706
3925.96614.250
4025.36313.664
4124.58713.112
4224.06512.712
4323.36312.380
4422.75311.935
4522.27011.542
4621.60211.113
4721.05810.733
4820.47710.249
4919.9249.892
5019.4369.515
5118.9589.181
5218.4558.855
5317.9428.482
5417.5338.136
5517.0467.793
5616.6277.391
5716.2977.159
5815.7956.930
5915.3546.684
6014.9186.370
6114.5916.066
6214.1575.850
6313.7745.652
6413.3055.416
6512.8795.236
6612.5205.056
6712.1104.891
6811.7214.682
6911.3294.473
7010.9924.325
7110.5924.129
7210.2123.975
739.8583.800
749.5303.647
759.1523.481
768.7923.337
778.5083.184
788.1203.046
797.7472.918
807.4112.754
817.0952.604
826.6812.466
836.3262.314
845.9832.191
855.7012.087
865.3501.951
875.0791.816
884.7731.711
894.5111.589
904.2101.458
913.8401.341
923.4311.208
933.1091.074
942.7660.920
952.4000.817
962.0450.704
971.6210.552
981.0840.433
990.7170.309


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


Creative Commons By Attribution logo
Unless otherwise noted, all material on this page is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution Australia Licence