Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Total Inflows to Lake Nillahcootie


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Exceedance probability for Total Inflows to Lake Nillahcootie ( Jun 2014 )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1057.51770.448
2045.60852.533
3036.69641.046
4029.43030.843
5023.29822.828
6017.60315.667
7013.23410.550
808.6986.499
904.7273.228

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
190.400116.029
282.244101.523
377.12795.824
472.30891.131
569.21387.647
666.67882.786
763.98579.354
861.51776.130
959.46872.895
1057.51770.448
1155.94568.407
1254.60266.138
1353.32164.406
1451.98362.660
1550.62560.726
1649.73959.181
1748.44557.364
1847.59055.499
1946.55353.845
2045.60852.533
2144.24251.259
2243.35649.833
2342.43548.830
2441.59147.361
2540.75646.436
2639.96945.636
2739.20244.414
2838.37243.439
2937.58242.302
3036.69641.046
3135.78839.892
3235.17138.716
3334.19737.785
3433.42836.866
3532.69835.602
3631.92634.590
3731.23233.579
3830.69132.635
3930.02031.861
4029.43030.843
4128.83329.860
4228.21229.133
4327.43328.522
4426.89327.684
4526.22926.933
4625.66926.096
4725.00925.340
4824.44024.358
4923.91223.620
5023.29822.828
5122.68022.114
5222.09521.405
5321.50320.583
5420.97619.806
5520.45019.027
5619.92018.096
5719.38917.554
5818.77017.012
5918.13916.425
6017.60315.667
6117.16014.925
6216.76114.393
6316.33313.904
6415.82113.314
6515.29012.863
6614.84412.410
6714.47411.993
6814.13411.461
6913.67910.926
7013.23410.550
7112.71610.045
7212.2899.650
7311.7439.198
7411.1408.803
7510.7698.376
7610.3368.004
779.8327.609
789.4977.253
799.1026.921
808.6986.499
818.2956.116
827.8445.762
837.4075.375
847.0195.062
856.6594.798
866.2204.456
875.8364.116
885.4743.853
895.0723.550
904.7273.228
914.3252.942
923.9452.621
933.6362.300
943.2021.938
952.8181.697
962.3471.438
971.8881.097
981.3560.837
990.7060.575


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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