Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Total Inflows to Lake Nillahcootie


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Product list for Total Inflows to Lake Nillahcootie


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Probability distribution for Total Inflows to Lake Nillahcootie(  )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile20.44612.592
Median36.53032.463
Mean39.72936.972
75% Quartile55.81755.567
Interquartile Range35.37142.975

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1105.034116.672
296.488104.011
391.37899.037
487.33294.938
584.10691.895
681.45187.648
779.23484.647
877.01781.827
975.00778.994
1073.26776.850
1172.01775.059
1270.65373.067
1369.18471.544
1467.83070.007
1566.62968.303
1665.14366.939
1763.99465.332
1862.76763.679
1961.59262.209
2060.46261.041
2159.27659.903
2258.49158.626
2357.66657.726
2456.73556.403
2555.82055.567
2654.69154.843
2753.61553.732
2852.71052.842
2951.75651.800
3050.74050.643
3150.08549.574
3249.32948.478
3348.44947.606
3447.77546.739
3546.96445.538
3645.97444.568
3745.23343.591
3844.48642.672
3943.49341.911
4042.85740.903
4142.34439.918
4241.54239.182
4341.01838.558
4440.35437.696
4539.71036.913
4639.02936.030
4738.45835.223
4837.72234.160
4937.06233.348
5036.53032.463
5135.86731.654
5235.33030.838
5334.61529.877
5434.02528.950
5533.42428.003
5632.77826.846
5732.11926.159
5831.40625.461
5930.66624.692
6030.10323.679
6129.31022.664
6228.68621.922
6327.97221.228
6427.43620.376
6526.78419.714
6626.23019.038
6725.55518.409
6824.93517.591
6924.24916.756
7023.67316.159
7123.04415.349
7222.55414.707
7321.97613.963
7421.22713.307
7520.44412.591
7619.99511.962
7719.42811.290
7818.71310.683
7917.96110.114
8017.3419.389
8116.6858.730
8215.9598.124
8315.3757.463
8414.5896.931
8513.8556.487
8613.1795.914
8712.3365.355
8811.6294.927
8910.9874.441
9010.1553.935
919.2593.495
928.5813.015
937.7872.549
947.0342.044
956.3431.722
965.4641.391
974.6240.981
983.6400.692
992.4700.425


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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