Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Total Inflows to Lake Nillahcootie


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Historical and exceedance probability for Total Inflows to Lake Nillahcootie( Jul 2014 )

Historical Observations
Average (1950+) (GL)Last year (2013) (GL)Minimum (2006) (GL)10 yr average (2004+) (GL)Maximum (1956) (GL)
Jul11.2996.1140.4704.92953.981
Jul-Aug26.62427.0790.60014.58294.392
Jul-Sep39.08032.3090.77422.517124.062

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1079.40079.850
2065.77463.429
3055.98452.646
4047.17742.583
5039.62133.931
6032.57425.046
7026.43817.550
8019.37610.775
9011.7075.006

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1118.812121.240
2107.553108.080
3101.056102.909
497.04898.649
592.71795.487
689.26091.072
786.32387.953
883.98685.022
980.90782.078
1079.40079.850
1177.80677.989
1276.50875.919
1374.90974.337
1473.50672.740
1572.02670.970
1671.00969.553
1769.85567.884
1868.46566.167
1966.92364.641
2065.77463.429
2164.66162.248
2263.58760.922
2362.63959.989
2461.56158.616
2560.59457.749
2659.55156.998
2758.64455.846
2857.78054.924
2956.85653.845
3055.98452.646
3155.05351.539
3254.20950.405
3352.88649.502
3451.97248.606
3551.19847.364
3650.47246.363
3749.61045.355
3848.87044.407
3947.92243.622
4047.17742.583
4146.40541.570
4245.63040.813
4344.69740.172
4443.94939.285
4543.25538.483
4642.52837.578
4741.75436.751
4840.96535.663
4940.33134.834
5039.62133.931
5138.92633.107
5238.25332.277
5337.61431.300
5436.94330.360
5536.24429.402
5635.47728.233
5734.61927.539
5833.96326.836
5933.34826.063
6032.57425.046
6132.01324.029
6231.45323.287
6330.73422.594
6430.15521.744
6529.60121.084
6628.92720.412
6728.29719.785
6827.64418.973
6927.06318.143
7026.43817.550
7125.76016.746
7224.89116.108
7324.25715.368
7423.57714.714
7522.76713.999
7622.18713.371
7721.34912.697
7820.82612.085
7920.08511.511
8019.37610.775
8118.60310.102
8217.9989.479
8317.3488.794
8416.6178.239
8515.6317.772
8614.9047.165
8714.0806.565
8813.3246.101
8912.7135.568
9011.7075.006
9110.9464.510
9210.0903.960
939.3173.416
948.3122.812
957.4432.418
966.6112.004
975.3021.472
984.3691.082
992.8320.704


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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