Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Total Inflows to Lake Nillahcootie


Return to catchment list
Product list for Total Inflows to Lake Nillahcootie


Download forecast data
Historical and exceedance probability for Total Inflows to Lake Nillahcootie(  )

Historical Observations
Average (1950+) (GL)Last year (2012) (GL)Observed (2013) (GL)Minimum (2008) (GL)10 yr average (2003+) (GL)Maximum (1956) (GL)
Apr1.1050.5390.0650.0000.26929.765
Apr-May3.7091.3070.2390.0000.68362.099
Apr-Jun8.2476.1810.6500.0002.18197.461

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1018.652
2010.304
306.928
404.744
503.381
602.322
701.602
801.016
900.495

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
175.409
249.699
341.796
436.138
532.395
627.767
724.879
822.427
920.196
1018.652
1117.449
1216.199
1315.303
1414.446
1513.551
1612.874
1712.118
1811.385
1910.770
2010.304
219.868
229.401
239.085
248.638
258.367
268.139
277.800
287.539
297.244
306.928
316.649
326.374
336.162
345.958
355.687
365.476
375.271
385.085
394.936
404.744
414.563
424.432
434.323
444.177
454.049
463.908
473.783
483.623
493.506
503.381
513.270
523.161
533.037
542.921
552.806
562.670
572.591
582.513
592.429
602.322
612.217
622.142
632.073
641.990
651.927
661.863
671.805
681.730
691.655
701.602
711.530
721.474
731.410
741.354
751.292
761.238
771.181
781.129
791.079
801.016
810.959
820.905
830.845
840.796
850.755
860.700
870.645
880.601
890.550
900.495
910.445
920.388
930.329
940.260
950.212
960.160
970.086
980.027
990.000


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


Creative Commons By Attribution logo
Unless otherwise noted, all material on this page is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution Australia Licence