Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Total Inflows to Lake Nillahcootie


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Historical and exceedance probability for Total Inflows to Lake Nillahcootie(  )

Historical Observations
Average (1950+) (GL)Last year (2012) (GL)Observed (2013) (GL)Minimum (2006) (GL)10 yr average (2003+) (GL)Maximum (1956) (GL)
May2.6040.7680.1740.0690.41432.334
May-Jun7.1425.6420.5850.0891.91267.696
May-Jul18.52225.0966.6990.5597.659121.677

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1033.06347.766
2021.86329.632
3015.56820.246
4011.24513.664
508.2999.515
606.0926.370
704.3304.325
802.7452.754
901.4531.458

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
172.295100.998
259.32583.709
351.44076.956
447.22371.425
543.93767.344
641.13761.697
739.00357.753
836.87954.090
934.89250.466
1033.06347.766
1131.25945.543
1230.00943.111
1328.76441.283
1427.50839.469
1526.30637.496
1625.19035.949
1724.29634.166
1823.31232.378
1922.54130.831
2021.86329.632
2120.98628.490
2220.20927.240
2319.52526.380
2418.88525.149
2518.28624.390
2617.79423.746
2717.27522.781
2816.67422.028
2915.95921.170
3015.56820.246
3115.15619.420
3214.70018.600
3314.28117.967
3413.59517.355
3513.17816.535
3612.85915.896
3712.48315.274
3812.12714.706
3911.61614.250
4011.24513.664
4110.91913.112
4210.59112.712
4310.33312.380
4410.05111.935
459.77611.542
469.41911.113
479.14210.733
488.84710.249
498.5759.892
508.2999.515
518.0859.181
527.7958.855
537.5698.482
547.3538.136
557.1347.793
566.9397.391
576.7087.159
586.5096.930
596.2796.684
606.0926.370
615.9026.066
625.7195.850
635.5165.652
645.3945.416
655.1965.236
665.0225.056
674.8524.891
684.6274.682
694.4854.473
704.3304.325
714.1534.129
723.9873.975
733.8453.800
743.6883.647
753.5493.481
763.3773.337
773.2503.184
783.0693.046
792.9122.918
802.7452.754
812.6242.604
822.5092.466
832.3672.314
842.2462.191
852.1112.087
861.9601.951
871.8351.816
881.6901.711
891.5751.589
901.4531.458
911.3121.341
921.1641.208
931.0151.074
940.8960.920
950.7450.817
960.5650.704
970.3880.552
980.2320.433
990.0000.309


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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