Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Total Inflows to Lake Nillahcootie


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Historical and exceedance probability for Total Inflows to Lake Nillahcootie(  )

Historical Observations
Average (1950+) (GL)Last year (2012) (GL)Observed (2013) (GL)Minimum (2006) (GL)10 yr average (2003+) (GL)Maximum (1956) (GL)
Jun4.5384.8740.4110.0201.49835.362
Jun-Jul15.91824.3286.5250.4907.24689.343
Jun-Aug31.15534.01427.4900.62016.965129.754

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1044.19270.448
2032.63352.533
3024.65541.046
4018.53730.843
5013.91422.828
6010.07115.667
707.22210.550
804.5966.499
902.3833.228

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
176.719116.029
268.159101.523
363.13895.824
458.77091.131
555.80487.647
652.92782.786
750.76179.354
848.22376.130
946.00372.895
1044.19270.448
1142.51168.407
1241.09966.138
1340.03564.406
1438.57462.660
1537.59760.726
1636.44059.181
1735.45957.364
1834.54755.499
1933.31453.845
2032.63352.533
2131.51551.259
2230.60849.833
2329.64748.830
2429.06447.361
2528.35746.436
2627.57245.636
2726.62144.414
2825.96343.439
2925.30142.302
3024.65541.046
3124.02939.892
3223.31938.716
3322.50837.785
3422.05536.866
3521.32835.602
3620.79934.590
3720.10533.579
3819.52932.635
3918.94531.861
4018.53730.843
4117.96629.860
4217.61229.133
4317.08228.522
4416.64427.684
4516.12326.933
4615.58026.096
4715.08725.340
4814.72724.358
4914.35523.620
5013.91422.828
5113.47922.114
5213.03321.405
5312.58520.583
5412.29519.806
5511.99019.027
5611.54318.096
5711.15517.554
5810.74517.012
5910.42216.425
6010.07115.667
619.77914.925
629.51214.393
639.19513.904
648.88013.314
658.52712.863
668.21112.410
677.97711.993
687.76011.461
697.53810.926
707.22210.550
716.94010.045
726.6699.650
736.3909.198
746.1328.803
755.7808.376
765.4938.004
775.2717.609
785.0407.253
794.7786.921
804.5966.499
814.3196.116
824.0675.762
833.8295.375
843.6415.062
853.4044.798
863.1674.456
872.9774.116
882.7993.853
892.5833.550
902.3833.228
912.1242.942
921.9432.621
931.7402.300
941.5671.938
951.3361.697
961.1431.438
970.8451.097
980.5230.837
990.1920.575


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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