Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Total Inflows to Lake Nillahcootie


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Historical and exceedance probability for Total Inflows to Lake Nillahcootie(  )

Historical Observations
Average (1950+) (GL)Last year (2012) (GL)Observed (2013) (GL)Minimum (2006) (GL)10 yr average (2003+) (GL)Maximum (1993) (GL)
Oct9.1730.3020.7430.0002.10650.958
Oct-Nov12.9360.4890.9740.0004.24657.745
Oct-Dec15.2870.4891.3420.0007.70158.900

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1023.88638.009
2016.92126.211
3012.89919.245
409.63413.684
507.4799.775
605.6066.564
704.0544.351
802.6352.575
901.3611.048

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
143.42969.568
236.96959.452
333.21455.486
430.97052.226
529.61449.812
628.18746.453
726.93344.090
825.90441.879
924.83239.670
1023.88638.009
1122.72936.629
1221.91235.104
1321.12733.946
1420.15832.784
1519.64531.506
1619.07030.492
1718.50629.307
1817.88528.102
1917.32627.043
2016.92126.211
2116.38225.408
2215.90624.517
2315.48423.896
2415.14122.995
2514.63422.433
2614.26421.950
2714.00721.219
2813.52120.641
2913.20419.974
3012.89919.245
3112.60918.583
3212.26817.918
3311.90017.397
3411.52716.887
3511.21016.196
3610.94715.649
3710.61015.110
3810.24314.613
399.91214.209
409.63413.684
419.36813.183
429.12512.817
438.89612.511
448.70512.097
458.46511.729
468.24511.322
478.00610.959
487.83810.492
497.63210.145
507.4799.775
517.2449.445
527.0699.119
536.8818.745
546.7008.395
556.5198.045
566.3397.631
576.1617.392
585.9557.153
595.7636.895
605.6066.564
615.4436.241
625.2836.011
635.1425.799
644.9985.544
654.8375.350
664.6535.154
674.5134.975
684.3394.745
694.1874.514
704.0544.351
713.9304.133
723.7723.962
733.6363.765
743.4773.593
753.3503.406
763.1783.243
773.0373.068
782.8862.911
792.7802.763
802.6352.575
812.5112.402
822.3772.241
832.2832.064
842.1271.920
851.9961.798
861.8541.637
871.7291.477
881.6341.352
891.4671.205
901.3611.048
911.2240.906
921.1090.745
930.9610.581
940.8270.391
950.6840.262
960.4430.120
970.2910.000
980.1300.000
990.0000.000


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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