Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Total Inflows to Lake Nillahcootie


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Historical and exceedance probability for Total Inflows to Lake Nillahcootie ( Feb 2014 )

Historical Observations
Average (1950+) (GL)Last year (2013) (GL)Observed (2014) (GL)Minimum (2009) (GL)10 yr average (2004+) (GL)Maximum (1956) (GL)
Feb0.6590.6800.0000.0001.0901.321
Feb-Mar1.3960.8670.0780.0002.1037.228
Feb-Apr2.4860.9320.3400.0002.32636.993

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
102.0524.909
201.3292.931
300.8892.061
400.6061.460
500.4191.061
600.2590.732
700.1220.495
800.0000.289
900.0000.090

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
15.79417.137
24.51011.570
33.8709.906
43.3198.712
52.9607.918
62.6626.925
72.4336.297
82.2705.756
92.1295.259
102.0524.909
111.9654.635
121.8644.346
131.7704.137
141.7043.935
151.6433.723
161.5633.560
171.4863.377
181.4353.198
191.3683.047
201.3292.931
211.2782.822
221.2212.704
231.1722.623
241.1082.509
251.0622.439
261.0302.380
270.9982.292
280.9622.223
290.9192.145
300.8892.061
310.8521.986
320.8201.912
330.7881.855
340.7561.799
350.7291.724
360.6981.666
370.6771.609
380.6521.557
390.6301.515
400.6061.460
410.5861.408
420.5621.371
430.5421.339
440.5241.297
450.5071.260
460.4891.218
470.4711.181
480.4491.134
490.4291.099
500.4191.061
510.3981.028
520.3780.995
530.3630.957
540.3500.921
550.3340.885
560.3180.843
570.3030.818
580.2890.794
590.2700.767
600.2590.732
610.2410.699
620.2270.674
630.2090.652
640.1970.625
650.1850.604
660.1740.583
670.1590.563
680.1460.538
690.1330.513
700.1220.495
710.1070.470
720.0950.451
730.0850.429
740.0720.409
750.0600.388
760.0500.369
770.0380.348
780.0250.329
790.0120.312
800.0000.289
810.0000.268
820.0000.248
830.0000.225
840.0000.207
850.0000.191
860.0000.170
870.0000.149
880.0000.132
890.0000.112
900.0000.090
910.0000.070
920.0000.046
930.0000.021
940.0000.000
950.0000.000
960.0000.000
970.0000.000
980.0000.000
990.0000.000


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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