Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Total Inflows to Lake Nillahcootie


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Historical and exceedance probability for Total Inflows to Lake Nillahcootie ( Jan 2013 )

Historical Observations
Average (1950+) (GL)Last year (2012) (GL)Observed (2013) (GL)Minimum (2009) (GL)10 yr average (2003+) (GL)Maximum (2011) (GL)
Jan0.7760.0000.0000.0000.8976.984
Jan-Feb1.4341.1340.6800.0001.92011.311
Jan-Mar2.1807.0380.8670.0002.91414.221

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
104.245
202.867
302.170
401.634
501.243
600.888
700.606
800.336
900.040

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
110.429
27.910
37.082
46.459
56.029
65.470
75.102
84.777
94.467
104.245
114.066
123.874
133.733
143.595
153.446
163.331
173.199
183.068
192.954
202.867
212.783
222.692
232.629
242.538
252.482
262.434
272.362
282.306
292.241
302.170
312.106
322.042
331.992
341.943
351.877
361.824
371.772
381.724
391.685
401.634
411.585
421.549
431.519
441.478
451.442
461.401
471.364
481.317
491.281
501.243
511.208
521.174
531.134
541.096
551.057
561.011
570.984
580.957
590.927
600.888
610.850
620.822
630.795
640.764
650.739
660.714
670.690
680.660
690.629
700.606
710.576
720.551
730.523
740.498
750.469
760.444
770.417
780.392
790.368
800.336
810.307
820.279
830.247
840.220
850.197
860.165
870.133
880.107
890.075
900.040
910.007
920.000
930.000
940.000
950.000
960.000
970.000
980.000
990.000


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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