Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Total Inflows to Lake Eppalock


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Product list for Total Inflows to Lake Eppalock


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Exceedance probability for Total Inflows to Lake Eppalock( Jun 2013 )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)		Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)		Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
10111.225211.803
2072.629152.143
3049.986113.941
4034.45480.500
5023.53855.331
6015.40234.590
709.86121.277
805.26111.857
901.9035.152

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)		Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)		Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1215.358363.305
2186.942315.109
3169.309296.173
4156.738280.576
5145.839268.997
6136.423252.838
7128.433241.425
8121.462230.704
9116.191219.941
10111.225211.803
11105.918205.008
12100.067197.458
1395.973191.691
1491.422185.875
1587.763179.436
1684.418174.289
1781.354168.236
1878.669162.022
1975.317156.512
2072.629152.143
2169.939147.898
2267.335143.147
2365.324139.809
2463.073134.918
2561.210131.840
2658.564129.181
2755.878125.117
2853.852121.880
2952.104118.106
3049.986113.941
3148.482110.121
3246.594106.236
3345.186103.165
3443.394100.138
3541.70295.986
3639.98892.671
3738.65689.370
3837.17286.301
3935.57983.788
4034.45480.500
4132.86177.341
4231.58575.014
4330.42373.065
4429.21670.407
4528.10768.036
4627.06365.408
4726.22063.050
4825.39260.012
4924.48757.745
5023.53855.331
5122.76353.173
5221.66851.047
5320.86748.607
5420.12546.323
5519.31344.057
5618.38841.384
5717.66439.844
5816.92238.318
5916.13836.680
6015.40234.590
6114.79032.572
6214.27031.143
6313.68329.842
6413.14828.290
6512.65027.116
6612.02225.948
6711.27324.885
6810.65323.540
6910.26822.206
709.86121.277
719.26320.046
728.72919.093
738.16018.013
747.73917.081
757.37216.085
766.86015.227
776.46914.327
786.08313.526
795.65712.786
805.26111.857
814.89411.024
824.53810.267
834.1039.448
843.8498.795
853.4758.252
863.1487.555
872.8026.876
882.4906.357
892.1905.767
901.9035.152
911.6234.615
921.3214.025
930.9353.449
940.6802.815
950.4102.406
960.1481.979
970.0001.437
980.0001.044
990.0000.669


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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