Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Total Inflows to Lake Eppalock


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Product list for Total Inflows to Lake Eppalock


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Exceedance probability for Total Inflows to Lake Eppalock( Sep 2014 )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1068.068182.926
2043.035126.369
3029.53491.127
4021.14461.866
5015.78141.392
6011.48525.591
708.16715.810
805.0928.937
902.7533.983

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1161.907327.955
2134.473281.780
3116.957263.641
4105.431248.703
595.525237.616
686.691222.150
780.367211.230
876.447200.979
971.803190.695
1068.068182.926
1164.747176.445
1261.752169.250
1357.986163.762
1455.396158.233
1552.904152.122
1651.023147.244
1749.157141.519
1846.645135.655
1945.009130.470
2043.035126.369
2141.347122.396
2239.729117.961
2338.240114.854
2436.782110.319
2535.729107.474
2634.148105.024
2732.951101.293
2831.77498.334
2930.50194.898
3029.53491.127
3128.36787.690
3227.29984.215
3326.50781.486
3425.59078.809
3524.76675.164
3623.87972.277
3723.15569.423
3822.53566.790
3921.77964.648
4021.14461.866
4120.60359.215
4220.00557.277
4319.38155.664
4418.82553.477
4518.20851.541
4617.71149.411
4717.09947.513
4816.61945.087
4916.18843.292
5015.78141.392
5115.26139.706
5214.81438.056
5314.30536.173
5413.84334.423
5513.43732.697
5613.02330.674
5712.57529.515
5812.17228.371
5911.82727.147
6011.48525.591
6111.09824.096
6210.84523.040
6310.51822.082
6410.13820.940
659.82220.079
669.51919.223
679.20418.445
688.90917.462
698.57416.488
708.16715.810
717.89214.912
727.56814.218
737.21113.431
746.90512.752
756.58612.025
766.27111.400
775.95610.742
785.64610.157
795.3849.617
805.0928.937
814.8408.326
824.5927.770
834.3547.168
844.1096.687
853.8396.287
863.5915.771
873.3645.268
883.1724.883
892.9504.443
902.7533.983
912.5413.581
922.2863.137
932.0162.701
941.7942.219
951.5531.906
961.2621.578
970.9341.158
980.6030.850
990.1900.553


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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