Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Total Inflows to Lake Eppalock


Return to catchment list
Product list for Total Inflows to Lake Eppalock


Download forecast data
Exceedance probability for Total Inflows to Lake Eppalock(  )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1035.452108.331
2023.64665.330
3017.64543.189
4013.27327.993
5010.24218.692
607.92911.865
705.8007.575
804.0734.389
902.2251.875

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
190.451232.930
267.715192.631
359.955176.867
454.676163.935
550.213154.382
646.554141.140
742.968131.873
839.622123.254
937.584114.708
1035.452108.331
1133.610103.075
1232.39697.318
1331.11392.986
1429.86388.683
1528.65584.002
1627.76880.328
1726.44376.093
1825.31271.848
1924.47768.176
2023.64665.330
2122.95162.622
2222.29459.662
2321.45757.627
2420.83754.715
2520.27452.925
2619.58551.406
2719.11549.134
2818.60747.366
2918.15345.352
3017.64543.189
3117.00941.261
3216.55039.353
3316.10737.882
3415.58536.464
3515.12734.569
3614.74533.098
3714.30431.668
3813.91630.369
3913.60329.328
4013.27327.993
4112.91826.739
4212.64425.834
4312.34925.086
4411.95624.082
4511.68223.202
4611.32122.241
4711.03221.392
4810.73920.316
4910.46819.525
5010.24218.692
519.91517.957
529.66017.240
539.42816.425
549.13315.669
558.91314.926
568.69114.055
578.50013.556
588.30113.064
598.10012.537
607.92911.865
617.72311.218
627.48010.761
637.27010.344
647.0319.845
656.7979.468
666.6219.092
676.4418.749
686.2398.313
695.9937.879
705.8007.575
715.6107.170
725.4106.856
735.2436.497
745.0896.185
754.9275.849
764.8035.558
774.6615.250
784.5114.973
794.2974.716
804.0734.389
813.8914.093
823.6503.821
833.5003.523
843.3493.282
853.1633.080
862.9542.817
872.8042.557
882.5912.355
892.4232.122
902.2251.875
912.0461.655
921.8581.408
931.6641.160
941.4740.879
951.2730.692
961.0850.490
970.8920.222
980.6360.017
990.2630.000


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


Creative Commons By Attribution logo
Unless otherwise noted, all material on this page is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution Australia Licence