Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Total Inflows to Lake Eppalock


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Product list for Total Inflows to Lake Eppalock


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Exceedance probability for Total Inflows to Lake Eppalock(  )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1011.67921.501
205.5148.560
303.0594.576
401.7962.473
501.0081.380
600.5110.666
700.1820.265
800.0000.000
900.0000.000

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
172.657190.127
241.70399.356
331.31975.561
425.39760.232
521.41250.509
618.09139.867
715.74333.640
814.13128.605
912.78524.318
1011.67921.501
1110.57119.398
129.63917.305
139.00915.842
148.35714.475
157.83213.107
167.19712.114
176.67311.016
186.1059.991
195.8309.166
205.5148.560
215.1578.004
224.7837.400
234.5207.032
244.2866.491
254.0746.178
263.8215.916
273.6505.523
283.4015.227
293.2234.916
303.0594.576
312.9094.288
322.7353.999
332.5663.788
342.4463.597
352.3143.329
362.2043.135
372.1222.944
382.0012.777
391.8872.642
401.7962.473
411.7172.317
421.6232.208
431.5352.116
441.4411.997
451.3531.894
461.2791.779
471.2101.685
481.1401.562
491.0771.472
501.0081.380
510.9421.300
520.8861.224
530.8351.134
540.7931.057
550.7430.975
560.6830.888
570.6390.837
580.5990.787
590.5500.735
600.5110.666
610.4690.605
620.4390.561
630.3970.520
640.3660.474
650.3330.439
660.3000.403
670.2700.372
680.2400.332
690.2100.292
700.1820.265
710.1550.229
720.1270.201
730.0960.169
740.0660.142
750.0380.114
760.0110.089
770.0000.063
780.0000.040
790.0000.019
800.0000.000
810.0000.000
820.0000.000
830.0000.000
840.0000.000
850.0000.000
860.0000.000
870.0000.000
880.0000.000
890.0000.000
900.0000.000
910.0000.000
920.0000.000
930.0000.000
940.0000.000
950.0000.000
960.0000.000
970.0000.000
980.0000.000
990.0000.000


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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