Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Total Inflows to Lake Eppalock


Return to catchment list
Product list for Total Inflows to Lake Eppalock


Download forecast data
Exceedance probability for Total Inflows to Lake Eppalock(  )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1052.097233.063
2031.356179.416
3020.289144.238
4013.822111.583
509.37583.979
606.29156.926
703.92636.238
801.93820.020
900.3768.260

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1134.367368.300
2112.354325.301
398.706308.406
485.308294.488
577.973284.154
671.736269.730
764.154259.539
859.545249.961
955.288240.341
1052.097233.063
1148.992226.982
1246.520220.220
1344.338215.051
1442.039209.833
1539.989204.050
1638.142199.420
1736.186193.968
1834.354188.360
1932.979183.377
2031.356179.416
2129.922175.561
2228.464171.234
2327.228168.185
2425.927163.705
2524.745160.876
2623.782158.426
2722.975154.669
2822.020151.663
2921.153148.143
3020.289144.238
3119.564140.634
3218.878136.943
3318.197134.006
3417.529131.092
3516.781127.060
3616.191123.811
3715.593120.543
3814.980117.474
3914.484114.938
4013.822111.583
4113.374108.316
4212.899105.881
4312.352103.821
4411.875100.979
4511.42898.410
4610.94195.521
4710.59892.890
4810.21489.440
499.78686.819
509.37583.979
518.98881.395
528.65678.806
538.29575.775
547.97172.878
557.66769.942
567.39966.394
577.16164.306
586.88862.205
596.54359.912
606.29156.926
616.01653.978
625.73951.851
635.50249.885
645.23047.503
654.99245.674
664.80843.831
674.61042.134
684.35339.961
694.16037.777
703.92636.238
713.76434.180
723.53732.572
733.33130.734
743.09329.137
752.93427.417
762.74725.929
772.56124.358
782.36022.955
792.10321.657
801.93820.020
811.79018.551
821.60717.215
831.46315.770
841.29214.618
851.18513.663
860.99712.439
870.85811.250
880.71110.346
890.5479.322
900.3768.260
910.2517.339
920.1016.337
930.0005.366
940.0004.312
950.0003.640
960.0002.949
970.0002.089
980.0001.481
990.0000.916


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


Creative Commons By Attribution logo
Unless otherwise noted, all material on this page is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution Australia Licence