Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Total Inflows to Lake Eppalock


Return to catchment list
Product list for Total Inflows to Lake Eppalock


Download forecast data
Exceedance probability for Total Inflows to Lake Eppalock(  )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1072.766108.331
2051.58265.330
3038.80143.189
4030.44227.993
5023.67218.692
6018.60611.865
7014.1987.575
8010.2964.389
906.1631.875

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1147.621232.930
2120.177192.631
3109.594176.867
4100.636163.935
595.156154.382
689.946141.140
785.280131.873
881.068123.254
975.252114.708
1072.766108.331
1169.528103.075
1267.25297.318
1364.83592.986
1462.32188.683
1560.21384.002
1658.27580.328
1756.25376.093
1854.58671.848
1953.09468.176
2051.58265.330
2150.09262.622
2248.76759.662
2347.35057.627
2445.82154.715
2544.82352.925
2643.59751.406
2742.42749.134
2841.26847.366
2939.72245.352
3038.80143.189
3137.82341.261
3236.76639.353
3335.71737.882
3434.84136.464
3534.02534.569
3633.38633.098
3732.59731.668
3831.98730.369
3931.11429.328
4030.44227.993
4129.58926.739
4228.79025.834
4328.06325.086
4427.48924.082
4526.84523.202
4626.18622.241
4725.62421.392
4824.94820.316
4924.39819.525
5023.67218.692
5123.16717.957
5222.57617.240
5322.11516.425
5421.48915.669
5520.89114.926
5620.26014.055
5719.88913.556
5819.44713.064
5919.00012.537
6018.60611.865
6118.21411.218
6217.80510.761
6317.38610.344
6416.9789.845
6516.4729.468
6616.0789.092
6715.5968.749
6815.0608.313
6914.7047.879
7014.1987.575
7113.7607.170
7213.3906.856
7313.0176.497
7412.6296.185
7512.2315.849
7611.9415.558
7711.5625.250
7811.1814.973
7910.7264.716
8010.2964.389
819.8374.093
829.4583.821
838.9983.523
848.5843.282
858.1383.080
867.7202.817
877.4172.557
886.9222.355
896.5252.122
906.1631.875
915.6731.655
925.2951.408
934.8201.160
944.4610.879
953.9590.692
963.5380.490
972.9830.222
982.5460.017
991.7960.000


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


Creative Commons By Attribution logo
Unless otherwise noted, all material on this page is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution Australia Licence