Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Total Inflows to Lake Eppalock


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Exceedance probability for Total Inflows to Lake Eppalock ( Jul 2014 )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
10116.105233.063
2082.726179.416
3059.119144.238
4044.152111.583
5032.67383.979
6023.78556.926
7016.63936.238
8010.46220.020
905.0238.260

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1216.743368.300
2188.119325.301
3172.150308.406
4158.981294.488
5149.019284.154
6141.229269.730
7133.883259.539
8127.126249.961
9120.731240.341
10116.105233.063
11111.531226.982
12108.067220.220
13103.635215.051
14100.581209.833
1596.869204.050
1694.039199.420
1790.139193.968
1887.428188.360
1984.724183.377
2082.726179.416
2179.393175.561
2276.954171.234
2374.575168.185
2472.466163.705
2569.619160.876
2667.282158.426
2764.748154.669
2862.791151.663
2961.139148.143
3059.119144.238
3157.362140.634
3255.675136.943
3353.972134.006
3452.516131.092
3551.372127.060
3649.993123.811
3748.307120.543
3847.017117.474
3945.583114.938
4044.152111.583
4142.833108.316
4241.643105.881
4340.647103.821
4439.545100.979
4538.58298.410
4637.44695.521
4736.26392.890
4834.94589.440
4933.79586.819
5032.67383.979
5131.56081.395
5230.77978.806
5329.91475.775
5429.02772.878
5527.99269.942
5627.02366.394
5725.97764.306
5825.19362.205
5924.41559.912
6023.78556.926
6122.72753.978
6221.98551.851
6321.32049.885
6420.78847.503
6520.04145.674
6619.23143.831
6718.59442.134
6817.88739.961
6917.34837.777
7016.63936.238
7115.96634.180
7215.48132.572
7314.93130.734
7414.28829.137
7513.57727.417
7612.89825.929
7712.29824.358
7811.63622.955
7911.07521.657
8010.46220.020
819.87318.551
829.28517.215
838.71215.770
848.17314.618
857.64613.663
866.99312.439
876.47611.250
885.92810.346
895.4809.322
905.0238.260
914.3737.339
923.9456.337
933.5315.366
942.9914.312
952.5193.640
962.0772.949
971.4432.089
980.7441.481
990.0000.916


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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