Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Total Inflows to Lake Eppalock


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Product list for Total Inflows to Lake Eppalock


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Probability distribution for Total Inflows to Lake Eppalock( Aug 2014 )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile22.72623.956
Median56.60477.557
Mean73.765100.015
75% Quartile109.183154.942
Interquartile Range86.457130.986

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1266.984365.630
2233.792321.946
3219.904304.781
4206.203290.641
5198.926280.143
6188.604265.488
7181.928255.135
8177.325245.405
9170.940235.633
10164.824228.239
11160.412222.062
12155.505215.193
13150.165209.942
14145.691204.642
15141.863198.769
16138.075194.067
17135.133188.531
18131.776182.837
19128.101177.777
20124.851173.757
21121.797169.843
22119.149165.451
23115.379162.358
24112.197157.813
25109.227154.943
26106.923152.458
27104.606148.649
28101.963145.602
2999.485142.036
3097.047138.080
3193.919134.431
3291.923130.695
3389.467127.725
3487.162124.779
3585.327120.705
3682.735117.425
3780.415114.129
3878.671111.036
3976.693108.482
4074.746105.107
4172.870101.824
4271.12799.381
4369.00597.316
4466.74494.470
4565.54591.902
4663.83989.019
4761.73686.397
4860.03882.967
4958.06080.368
5056.60477.557
5155.14475.007
5253.72272.458
5351.84069.483
5450.10666.649
5548.45763.788
5646.84660.346
5745.36158.328
5843.65456.305
5942.30254.104
6040.98851.251
6139.76848.449
6238.51846.437
6337.45444.585
6436.24542.350
6535.00240.643
6633.60338.928
6732.45937.355
6831.55535.349
6930.26633.342
7028.89631.934
7127.39530.058
7226.21428.599
7325.04526.936
7423.82425.497
7522.72223.953
7621.72422.621
7720.68921.220
7819.61219.973
7918.73318.821
8017.44417.374
8116.47616.078
8215.51714.902
8314.73113.634
8413.84712.626
8513.12811.791
8612.22110.723
8711.3359.688
8810.5788.902
899.9138.013
909.1917.093
918.2716.296
927.4015.430
936.4324.592
945.5223.685
954.7293.107
963.9982.513
973.0891.776
982.3041.256
991.3010.775


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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