Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Total Inflows to Lake Eppalock


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Product list for Total Inflows to Lake Eppalock


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Probability distribution for Total Inflows to Lake Eppalock(  )

Basic Statistics
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile5.484
Median22.184
Mean52.182
75% Quartile74.751
Interquartile Range69.267

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1299.636
2251.875
3233.118
4217.674
5206.216
6190.241
7178.974
8168.408
9157.826
10149.846
11143.204
12135.849
13130.255
14124.637
15118.452
16113.538
17107.800
18101.963
1996.841
2092.821
2188.955
2284.679
2381.709
2477.416
2574.752
2672.477
2769.048
2866.360
2963.279
3059.948
3156.961
3253.992
3351.696
3449.478
3546.511
3644.207
3741.969
3839.939
3938.315
4036.240
4134.299
4232.904
4331.757
4430.223
4528.886
4627.437
4726.164
4824.565
4923.400
5022.184
5121.119
5220.090
5318.933
5417.871
5516.838
5615.644
5714.968
5814.307
5913.606
6012.724
6111.887
6211.301
6310.774
6410.151
659.685
669.224
678.809
688.288
697.776
707.421
716.956
726.598
736.195
745.850
755.484
765.170
774.843
784.553
794.287
803.955
813.659
823.392
833.105
842.877
852.689
862.448
872.215
882.038
891.838
901.631
911.452
921.256
931.066
940.860
950.728
960.592
970.422
980.301
990.188


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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