Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Total Inflows to Lake Eppalock


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Product list for Total Inflows to Lake Eppalock


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Probability distribution for Total Inflows to Lake Eppalock(  )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile8.04716.087
Median25.45255.331
Mean44.39285.373
75% Quartile64.831131.838
Interquartile Range56.784115.751

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1219.674363.305
2192.437315.109
3173.802296.173
4161.365280.576
5150.901268.997
6140.892252.838
7132.963241.425
8125.991230.704
9120.968219.941
10116.169211.803
11110.934205.008
12104.964197.458
13100.935191.691
1495.710185.875
1592.085179.436
1688.658174.289
1785.735168.236
1882.535162.022
1979.646156.512
2076.646152.143
2173.936147.898
2271.387143.147
2369.303139.809
2466.854134.918
2564.858131.840
2662.391129.181
2759.573125.117
2857.407121.880
2955.571118.106
3053.321113.941
3151.576110.121
3250.064106.236
3348.257103.165
3446.313100.138
3544.76695.986
3642.89292.671
3741.41989.370
3839.95286.301
3938.44083.788
4037.07880.500
4135.38977.341
4234.04675.014
4332.75273.065
4431.65170.407
4530.37068.036
4629.34965.408
4728.48263.050
4827.45660.012
4926.48557.745
5025.45255.331
5124.70053.173
5223.54951.047
5322.61548.607
5421.82746.323
5521.01244.057
5620.08241.384
5719.29139.844
5818.35638.318
5917.54636.680
6016.77634.590
6116.13232.572
6215.56631.143
6314.95429.842
6414.35028.290
6513.80827.116
6613.09125.948
6712.32224.885
6811.81623.540
6911.31322.206
7010.77421.277
7110.22120.046
729.55219.093
738.98118.013
748.50017.081
758.04616.085
767.58915.227
777.15414.327
786.77113.526
796.24712.786
805.83411.857
815.44111.024
824.99110.267
834.6079.448
844.2718.795
853.8808.252
863.5447.555
873.1846.876
882.8486.357
892.5025.767
902.2355.152
911.8594.615
921.5224.025
931.1923.449
940.8502.815
950.5342.406
960.2461.979
970.0001.437
980.0001.044
990.0000.669


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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