Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Total Inflows to Lake Eppalock


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Product list for Total Inflows to Lake Eppalock


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Probability distribution for Total Inflows to Lake Eppalock(  )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile30.89423.956
Median72.88377.557
Mean88.011100.015
75% Quartile130.811154.942
Interquartile Range99.917130.986

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1296.154365.630
2259.495321.946
3241.324304.781
4229.453290.641
5220.452280.143
6212.294265.488
7204.092255.135
8197.878245.405
9193.139235.633
10186.600228.239
11180.807222.062
12176.385215.193
13171.905209.942
14168.000204.642
15163.779198.769
16159.586194.067
17156.202188.531
18152.897182.837
19149.616177.777
20146.955173.757
21142.559169.843
22139.700165.451
23136.588162.358
24132.894157.813
25130.828154.943
26127.467152.458
27123.990148.649
28121.812145.602
29119.072142.036
30116.209138.080
31113.792134.431
32111.646130.695
33109.235127.725
34106.587124.779
35104.545120.705
36102.006117.425
37100.105114.129
3897.954111.036
3995.276108.482
4093.207105.107
4191.309101.824
4288.85499.381
4387.04697.316
4485.19194.470
4582.88391.902
4680.78189.019
4778.72386.397
4876.63882.967
4974.54380.368
5072.88377.557
5171.01475.007
5269.31772.458
5366.60169.483
5465.05266.649
5563.51463.788
5661.77660.346
5759.79458.328
5857.92556.305
5956.27254.104
6054.51551.251
6152.64348.449
6251.08846.437
6349.51944.585
6447.90042.350
6546.33040.643
6644.04238.928
6742.43437.355
6840.77735.349
6939.50533.342
7038.04431.934
7136.60530.058
7235.25028.599
7333.69426.936
7432.35625.497
7530.88423.953
7629.49222.621
7728.07921.220
7826.48119.973
7925.27018.821
8024.11217.374
8122.78916.078
8221.31314.902
8320.17813.634
8418.88312.626
8517.80911.791
8616.77910.723
8715.4619.688
8814.4948.902
8913.3458.013
9012.1847.093
9111.4166.296
9210.2675.430
938.9664.592
947.7203.685
956.5173.107
965.3972.513
974.5731.776
983.3871.256
992.0260.775


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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