Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Total Inflows to Lake Eppalock


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Historical and exceedance probability for Total Inflows to Lake Eppalock( Oct 2014 )

Historical Observations
Average (1950+) (GL)Last year (2013) (GL)Minimum (2006) (GL)10 yr average (2004+) (GL)Maximum (1975) (GL)
Oct25.20312.8170.0007.706172.782
Oct-Nov34.53913.7000.00019.718238.014
Oct-Dec38.50914.0120.00025.697242.553

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1029.790108.331
2019.30765.330
3013.77343.189
4010.21327.993
507.80018.692
605.92011.865
704.3857.575
802.9794.389
901.6161.875

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
178.036232.930
263.966192.631
354.038176.867
446.964163.935
542.191154.382
638.808141.140
735.812131.873
833.734123.254
931.551114.708
1029.790108.331
1128.173103.075
1226.80297.318
1325.59492.986
1424.61488.683
1523.49084.002
1622.57180.328
1721.49576.093
1820.65871.848
1919.97168.176
2019.30765.330
2118.72662.622
2218.10959.662
2317.42657.627
2416.94254.715
2516.35952.925
2615.79551.406
2715.23649.134
2814.67047.366
2914.16445.352
3013.77343.189
3113.23641.261
3212.88939.353
3312.52737.882
3412.13436.464
3511.72534.569
3611.36033.098
3711.06731.668
3810.78330.369
3910.49729.328
4010.21327.993
419.97726.739
429.71225.834
439.44125.086
449.21524.082
458.96123.202
468.74522.241
478.53421.392
488.30920.316
498.04019.525
507.80018.692
517.61317.957
527.40417.240
537.21916.425
547.02915.669
556.84014.926
566.65214.055
576.44813.556
586.24713.064
596.07212.537
605.92011.865
615.76811.218
625.61810.761
635.45110.344
645.3059.845
655.1549.468
665.0039.092
674.8228.749
684.6638.313
694.5347.879
704.3857.575
714.2297.170
724.1126.856
733.9706.497
743.8536.185
753.7255.849
763.5345.558
773.3865.250
783.2834.973
793.1524.716
802.9794.389
812.8264.093
822.7143.821
832.5553.523
842.4443.282
852.3173.080
862.1892.817
872.0582.557
881.8832.355
891.7322.122
901.6161.875
911.4781.655
921.3261.408
931.1601.160
940.9980.879
950.8560.692
960.6440.490
970.5000.222
980.3000.017
990.0580.000


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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