Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Total Inflows to Lake Eppalock


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Historical and exceedance probability for Total Inflows to Lake Eppalock(  )

Historical Observations
Average (1950+) (GL)Last year (2011) (GL)Observed (2012) (GL)Minimum (2006) (GL)10 yr average (2002+) (GL)Maximum (1975) (GL)
Sep35.83519.17215.6490.56816.364103.153
Sep-Oct61.58232.22219.4860.56822.913275.935
Sep-Nov71.17636.51721.2510.56834.752341.167

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
10138.800182.926
20102.355126.369
3077.09491.127
4057.61061.866
5044.55941.392
6033.67725.591
7024.17815.810
8015.7978.937
908.9733.983

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1243.329327.955
2214.081281.780
3198.210263.641
4183.926248.703
5172.675237.616
6165.613222.150
7157.553211.230
8150.588200.979
9145.181190.695
10138.800182.926
11134.458176.445
12131.152169.250
13127.110163.762
14122.672158.233
15119.256152.122
16115.437147.244
17112.099141.519
18109.330135.655
19106.010130.470
20102.355126.369
2199.305122.396
2296.413117.961
2393.582114.854
2490.743110.319
2587.920107.474
2685.342105.024
2782.859101.293
2880.92798.334
2978.99294.898
3077.09491.127
3174.70687.690
3272.60484.215
3370.55281.486
3468.61578.809
3566.83475.164
3665.15872.277
3762.65769.423
3860.75466.790
3959.31164.648
4057.61061.866
4155.94759.215
4254.45857.277
4353.30055.664
4452.20053.477
4550.72251.541
4649.65449.411
4748.22247.513
4847.16145.087
4945.78743.292
5044.55941.392
5143.23239.706
5241.92038.056
5340.83136.173
5439.93334.423
5538.39232.697
5637.45430.674
5736.45229.515
5835.55028.371
5934.49227.147
6033.67725.591
6132.39324.096
6231.59923.040
6330.67122.082
6429.75220.940
6528.83920.079
6628.03519.223
6727.00718.445
6825.89617.462
6925.03816.488
7024.17815.810
7123.34514.912
7222.54914.218
7321.59913.431
7420.84412.752
7519.84712.025
7618.89811.400
7718.09310.742
7817.25610.157
7916.5359.617
8015.7978.937
8115.0708.326
8214.4577.770
8313.7517.168
8413.0226.687
8512.3386.287
8611.5945.771
8710.8625.268
8810.3394.883
899.5404.443
908.9733.983
918.3793.581
927.8283.137
937.1592.701
946.5422.219
955.7201.906
964.8381.578
973.9601.158
982.8760.850
991.7570.553


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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