Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Total Inflows to Lake Eppalock


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Historical and exceedance probability for Total Inflows to Lake Eppalock(  )

Historical Observations
Average (1950+) (GL)Last year (2011) (GL)Observed (2012) (GL)Minimum (2009) (GL)10 yr average (2002+) (GL)Maximum (2010) (GL)
Nov9.5944.2951.7650.00011.839101.420
Nov-Dec13.6884.2951.7650.00017.796153.240
Nov-Jan17.8274.2951.7650.00038.332358.603

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1019.05338.336
2011.83920.199
308.38513.121
406.1738.663
504.5455.937
603.3433.857
702.2932.483
801.4181.383
900.5440.429

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
158.396186.058
242.745113.166
336.43492.848
431.33178.999
528.04169.751
625.25359.054
722.93552.423
821.38646.799
920.16041.777
1019.05338.336
1117.99335.680
1217.02132.949
1316.26830.983
1415.41129.095
1514.63027.152
1614.07125.705
1713.35324.062
1812.93422.484
1912.42921.179
2011.83920.199
2111.51519.281
2211.07618.262
2310.68617.630
2410.32116.684
259.91616.125
269.59015.650
279.26914.927
288.98214.374
298.67513.781
308.38513.121
318.08612.551
327.90011.970
337.71711.537
347.44911.139
357.25710.571
367.01210.151
376.7919.731
386.5669.358
396.3629.051
406.1738.663
415.9788.296
425.7528.036
435.5997.814
445.4617.524
455.3207.268
465.1576.981
475.0036.739
484.8706.421
494.6766.182
504.5455.937
514.4055.718
524.2815.508
534.1565.256
544.0295.036
553.9124.797
563.7964.541
573.6814.388
583.5554.233
593.4614.073
603.3433.857
613.2243.658
623.1343.515
633.0253.381
642.9373.226
652.8213.104
662.6962.982
672.5792.870
682.4812.728
692.3882.584
702.2932.483
712.2072.348
722.1262.242
732.0142.120
741.9252.014
751.8241.898
761.7431.797
771.6571.689
781.5671.592
791.4941.500
801.4181.383
811.3231.276
821.2461.176
831.1581.066
841.0870.976
851.0100.900
860.9170.800
870.8260.699
880.7290.621
890.6510.529
900.5440.429
910.4500.340
920.3490.237
930.2430.133
940.1670.011
950.0570.000
960.0000.000
970.0000.000
980.0000.000
990.0000.000


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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