Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Total Inflows to Lake Eppalock


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Product list for Total Inflows to Lake Eppalock


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Historical and exceedance probability for Total Inflows to Lake Eppalock(  )

Historical Observations
Average (1950+) (GL)Last year (2012) (GL)Observed (2013) (GL)Minimum (2009) (GL)10 yr average (2003+) (GL)Maximum (1974) (GL)
Mar0.9203.0700.0000.0000.5820.000
Mar-Apr2.0103.0700.0000.0000.60110.610
Mar-May9.3273.0900.0000.0000.729160.005

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
108.52321.756
204.4988.792
302.5954.756
401.5512.622
500.9031.513
600.4620.788
700.1340.381
800.0000.104
900.0000.000

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
135.384141.999
226.76188.185
321.53370.313
417.41357.671
514.93649.170
612.91139.447
711.39833.567
810.20928.719
99.23024.533
108.52321.756
117.83119.671
127.37717.585
136.86316.123
146.44214.753
156.01613.378
165.60812.379
175.27911.273
184.98110.238
194.7379.404
204.4988.792
214.2468.230
224.0037.618
233.8167.246
243.5606.698
253.3716.381
263.1996.115
273.0535.716
282.8795.417
292.7125.101
302.5954.756
312.4384.464
322.3434.171
332.2093.957
342.1183.763
352.0183.491
361.9373.294
371.8363.100
381.7482.931
391.6352.793
401.5512.622
411.4662.464
421.3962.353
431.3232.259
441.2462.139
451.1902.034
461.1301.918
471.0711.822
481.0061.698
490.9501.606
500.9031.513
510.8521.431
520.7921.354
530.7411.263
540.7061.184
550.6611.101
560.6111.014
570.5700.962
580.5350.910
590.4970.858
600.4620.788
610.4280.726
620.3870.681
630.3460.640
640.3150.593
650.2790.557
660.2510.521
670.2190.489
680.1890.448
690.1640.408
700.1340.381
710.1070.344
720.0750.316
730.0430.284
740.0200.256
750.0000.227
760.0000.202
770.0000.176
780.0000.152
790.0000.131
800.0000.104
810.0000.079
820.0000.058
830.0000.034
840.0000.015
850.0000.000
860.0000.000
870.0000.000
880.0000.000
890.0000.000
900.0000.000
910.0000.000
920.0000.000
930.0000.000
940.0000.000
950.0000.000
960.0000.000
970.0000.000
980.0000.000
990.0000.000


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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