Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Total Inflows to Lake Eppalock


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Historical and exceedance probability for Total Inflows to Lake Eppalock(  )

Historical Observations
Average (1950+) (GL)Last year (2012) (GL)Observed (2013) (GL)Minimum (2006) (GL)10 yr average (2003+) (GL)Maximum (1975) (GL)
Sep35.51415.64935.1150.56817.866103.153
Sep-Oct60.91419.48647.9320.56824.763275.935
Sep-Nov70.38421.25148.8150.56836.775341.167

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
10132.747182.926
2096.323126.369
3072.27191.127
4053.77861.866
5041.19441.392
6031.00425.591
7022.34715.810
8014.5778.937
908.5133.983

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1232.066327.955
2207.896281.780
3189.925263.641
4177.783248.703
5168.307237.616
6157.647222.150
7150.712211.230
8143.033200.979
9136.426190.695
10132.747182.926
11128.348176.445
12124.302169.250
13120.171163.762
14116.051158.233
15112.258152.122
16108.229147.244
17105.321141.519
18102.019135.655
1998.864130.470
2096.323126.369
2193.404122.396
2290.962117.961
2387.901114.854
2485.212110.319
2582.417107.474
2680.604105.024
2778.222101.293
2876.08898.334
2973.83994.898
3072.27191.127
3170.00087.690
3268.00984.215
3365.86581.486
3464.17678.809
3562.41175.164
3660.26672.277
3758.59269.423
3856.99766.790
3955.26664.648
4053.77861.866
4152.44559.215
4250.98157.277
4349.80155.664
4448.56653.477
4547.17451.541
4645.87149.411
4744.82847.513
4843.89845.087
4942.54943.292
5041.19441.392
5140.21539.706
5239.09238.056
5338.01736.173
5436.75134.423
5535.81032.697
5634.75730.674
5733.58329.515
5832.70628.371
5931.87427.147
6031.00425.591
6130.00324.096
6229.30523.040
6328.26422.082
6427.48820.940
6526.55920.079
6625.75319.223
6724.96118.445
6823.97117.462
6923.36116.488
7022.34715.810
7121.57114.912
7220.86114.218
7320.09113.431
7419.39612.752
7518.49012.025
7617.54411.400
7716.74410.742
7816.10310.157
7915.3289.617
8014.5778.937
8113.9158.326
8213.2667.770
8312.6507.168
8411.9416.687
8511.3096.287
8610.6935.771
8710.1355.268
889.6884.883
899.0504.443
908.5133.983
917.9093.581
927.3013.137
936.7232.701
946.0562.219
955.2461.906
964.4071.578
973.6331.158
982.6670.850
991.6540.553


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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