Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Total Inflows to Lake Eppalock


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Historical and exceedance probability for Total Inflows to Lake Eppalock(  )

Historical Observations
Average (1950+) (GL)Last year (2012) (GL)Observed (2013) (GL)Minimum (2009) (GL)10 yr average (2003+) (GL)Maximum (2010) (GL)
Nov9.4701.7650.8830.00012.012101.420
Nov-Dec13.4981.7651.1950.00017.970153.240
Nov-Jan17.5721.7651.1950.00038.506358.603

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1029.13238.336
2018.45520.199
3013.21613.121
409.8328.663
507.4225.937
605.5453.857
704.0042.483
802.6261.383
901.3100.429

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
187.151186.058
265.091113.166
353.29292.848
447.88578.999
542.80669.751
637.85859.054
735.30252.423
832.86746.799
930.65241.777
1029.13238.336
1127.97635.680
1226.20132.949
1324.78830.983
1423.78129.095
1522.85027.152
1621.81325.705
1720.85824.062
1820.18022.484
1919.36421.179
2018.45520.199
2117.80419.281
2217.10118.262
2316.56917.630
2416.07616.684
2515.57616.125
2615.02615.650
2714.46414.927
2814.02314.374
2913.64313.781
3013.21613.121
3112.74212.551
3212.40811.970
3312.06211.537
3411.74011.139
3511.39310.571
3611.10210.151
3710.7449.731
3810.4849.358
3910.0869.051
409.8328.663
419.5278.296
429.2538.036
438.9507.814
448.6947.524
458.4957.268
468.3086.981
478.0866.739
487.8946.421
497.6626.182
507.4225.937
517.1945.718
526.9815.508
536.7505.256
546.5735.036
556.4354.797
566.2604.541
576.0854.388
585.9044.233
595.7094.073
605.5453.857
615.3853.658
625.1893.515
635.0383.381
644.8803.226
654.7423.104
664.6172.982
674.4742.870
684.3072.728
694.1632.584
704.0042.483
713.8532.348
723.7112.242
733.5622.120
743.4392.014
753.2731.898
763.1291.797
772.9971.689
782.8861.592
792.7721.500
802.6261.383
812.4881.276
822.3921.176
832.2841.066
842.1700.976
852.0460.900
861.8870.800
871.7510.699
881.5940.621
891.4630.529
901.3100.429
911.1590.340
921.0260.237
930.8730.133
940.7630.011
950.5780.000
960.4100.000
970.2290.000
980.0000.000
990.0000.000


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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