Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Total Inflows to Lake Eppalock


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Historical and exceedance probability for Total Inflows to Lake Eppalock(  )

Historical Observations
Average (1950+) (GL)Last year (2012) (GL)Observed (2013) (GL)Minimum (2012) (GL)10 yr average (2003+) (GL)Maximum (2010) (GL)
Dec4.0290.0000.3120.0005.95751.820
Dec-Jan8.1020.0000.3120.00026.494257.183
Dec-Feb11.4960.0000.3120.00033.203318.764

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
100.00021.501
200.0008.560
300.0004.576
400.0002.473
500.0001.380
600.0000.666
700.0000.265
800.0000.000
900.0000.000

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
11440.489190.127
2735.15499.356
3237.45675.561
428.53960.232
52.84350.509
60.18339.867
70.00033.640
80.00028.605
90.00024.318
100.00021.501
110.00019.398
120.00017.305
130.00015.842
140.00014.475
150.00013.107
160.00012.114
170.00011.016
180.0009.991
190.0009.166
200.0008.560
210.0008.004
220.0007.400
230.0007.032
240.0006.491
250.0006.178
260.0005.916
270.0005.523
280.0005.227
290.0004.916
300.0004.576
310.0004.288
320.0003.999
330.0003.788
340.0003.597
350.0003.329
360.0003.135
370.0002.944
380.0002.777
390.0002.642
400.0002.473
410.0002.317
420.0002.208
430.0002.116
440.0001.997
450.0001.894
460.0001.779
470.0001.685
480.0001.562
490.0001.472
500.0001.380
510.0001.300
520.0001.224
530.0001.134
540.0001.057
550.0000.975
560.0000.888
570.0000.837
580.0000.787
590.0000.735
600.0000.666
610.0000.605
620.0000.561
630.0000.520
640.0000.474
650.0000.439
660.0000.403
670.0000.372
680.0000.332
690.0000.292
700.0000.265
710.0000.229
720.0000.201
730.0000.169
740.0000.142
750.0000.114
760.0000.089
770.0000.063
780.0000.040
790.0000.019
800.0000.000
810.0000.000
820.0000.000
830.0000.000
840.0000.000
850.0000.000
860.0000.000
870.0000.000
880.0000.000
890.0000.000
900.0000.000
910.0000.000
920.0000.000
930.0000.000
940.0000.000
950.0000.000
960.0000.000
970.0000.000
980.0000.000
990.0000.000


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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