Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Total Inflows to Lake Eppalock


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Historical and exceedance probability for Total Inflows to Lake Eppalock ( Feb 2014 )

Historical Observations
Average (1950+) (GL)Last year (2013) (GL)Observed (2014) (GL)Minimum (2013) (GL)10 yr average (2004+) (GL)Maximum (1951) (GL)
Feb3.4260.0000.0000.0006.70967.948
Feb-Mar4.3310.0000.6910.0007.29170.942
Feb-Apr5.4050.0000.6910.0007.31172.535

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1012.737
203.563
301.422
400.559
500.214
600.038
700.000
800.000
900.000

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
165.588
247.513
340.469
434.737
530.559
624.921
721.151
817.842
914.808
1012.737
1111.168
129.598
138.521
147.537
156.563
165.866
175.130
184.463
193.939
203.563
213.230
222.892
232.673
242.380
252.211
262.074
271.878
281.735
291.579
301.422
311.289
321.165
331.074
340.990
350.883
360.805
370.732
380.669
390.620
400.559
410.505
420.468
430.438
440.399
450.366
460.331
470.301
480.265
490.240
500.214
510.192
520.171
530.148
540.128
550.109
560.087
570.075
580.064
590.052
600.038
610.024
620.015
630.007
640.000
650.000
660.000
670.000
680.000
690.000
700.000
710.000
720.000
730.000
740.000
750.000
760.000
770.000
780.000
790.000
800.000
810.000
820.000
830.000
840.000
850.000
860.000
870.000
880.000
890.000
900.000
910.000
920.000
930.000
940.000
950.000
960.000
970.000
980.000
990.000


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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