Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Total Inflows to Lake Eppalock


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Historical and exceedance probability for Total Inflows to Lake Eppalock ( Apr 2014 )

Historical Observations
Average (1950+) (GL)Last year (2013) (GL)Observed (2014) (GL)Minimum (2013) (GL)10 yr average (2004+) (GL)Maximum (1956) (GL)
Apr1.0740.0000.0000.0000.0209.602
Apr-May8.2750.0000.4180.0000.083108.184
Apr-Jun24.1470.0000.4180.0001.350178.513

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1077.868
2037.922
3020.342
4010.703
505.984
603.161
701.707
800.823
900.278

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1195.684
2157.844
3142.997
4130.788
5121.746
6109.177
7100.355
892.130
983.963
1077.868
1172.850
1267.366
1363.257
1459.196
1554.810
1651.400
1747.512
1843.673
1940.409
2037.922
2135.595
2233.099
2331.414
2429.052
2527.630
2626.442
2724.699
2823.371
2921.891
3020.342
3118.995
3217.696
3316.719
3415.796
3514.594
3613.686
3712.823
3812.058
3911.457
4010.703
4110.012
429.523
439.127
448.603
458.153
467.672
477.255
486.739
496.367
505.984
515.653
525.336
534.983
544.663
554.355
564.003
573.805
583.614
593.412
603.161
612.924
622.761
632.614
642.442
652.315
662.189
672.077
681.937
691.801
701.707
711.585
721.491
731.387
741.298
751.205
761.125
771.043
780.971
790.905
800.823
810.751
820.686
830.618
840.564
850.519
860.463
870.410
880.369
890.324
900.278
910.238
920.196
930.156
940.113
950.086
960.058
970.025
980.003
990.000


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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