Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Total Inflows to Lake Eppalock


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Historical and exceedance probability for Total Inflows to Lake Eppalock ( Jun 2014 )

Historical Observations
Average (1950+) (GL)Last year (2013) (GL)Observed (2014) (GL)Minimum (2006) (GL)10 yr average (2004+) (GL)Maximum (1981) (GL)
Jun15.8710.0000.0000.0261.26730.089
Jun-Jul45.5964.72710.0510.3378.542173.291
Jun-Aug85.51931.91116.3100.61327.095372.970

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
10184.678211.803
20142.566152.143
30114.446113.941
4089.89180.500
5069.52155.331
6050.84834.590
7036.37721.277
8021.54811.857
9010.2035.152

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1292.069363.305
2265.788315.109
3245.815296.173
4230.569280.576
5221.449268.997
6212.288252.838
7204.853241.425
8196.625230.704
9190.071219.941
10184.678211.803
11179.865205.008
12175.210197.458
13169.707191.691
14165.764185.875
15161.698179.436
16158.212174.289
17154.113168.236
18150.182162.022
19145.972156.512
20142.566152.143
21139.638147.898
22136.976143.147
23134.142139.809
24130.399134.918
25127.338131.840
26124.793129.181
27121.826125.117
28119.043121.880
29116.504118.106
30114.446113.941
31112.224110.121
32109.731106.236
33106.975103.165
34104.698100.138
35102.15995.986
3699.01192.671
3796.79189.370
3894.13586.301
3992.05583.788
4089.89180.500
4187.78477.341
4285.50375.014
4383.29073.065
4481.32270.407
4579.06368.036
4677.34165.408
4775.44163.050
4873.56560.012
4971.52757.745
5069.52155.331
5167.47653.173
5265.48351.047
5363.56948.607
5461.67946.323
5559.89644.057
5658.23541.384
5756.56139.844
5854.46938.318
5952.58236.680
6050.84834.590
6149.02232.572
6247.50331.143
6346.46929.842
6445.14228.290
6543.37527.116
6641.90225.948
6740.33624.885
6839.16123.540
6937.82222.206
7036.37721.277
7134.59120.046
7233.06519.093
7331.27518.013
7429.76817.081
7528.52016.085
7627.31315.227
7725.44214.327
7823.78713.526
7922.65112.786
8021.54811.857
8120.38911.024
8218.71910.267
8317.6219.448
8416.4678.795
8515.3678.252
8614.3057.555
8713.2406.876
8812.3866.357
8911.3805.767
9010.2035.152
919.4674.615
928.1404.025
937.1163.449
945.7022.815
954.5092.406
963.6151.979
972.5381.437
981.6531.044
990.4130.669


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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