Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Total Inflows to Lake Eppalock


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Historical and exceedance probability for Total Inflows to Lake Eppalock ( Jan 2009 )

Historical Observations
Average (1950+) (GL)Last year (2008) (GL)Observed (2009) (GL)Minimum (2007) (GL)10 yr average (1999+) (GL)Maximum (1951) (GL)
Jan0.8690.0000.0000.0000.0890.401
Jan-Feb3.4620.0130.0000.0000.32068.349
Jan-Mar4.3460.0130.0000.0000.34171.343

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
106.21510.390
202.5493.748
301.2571.761
400.5330.749
500.1530.243
600.0000.000
700.0000.000
800.0000.000
900.0000.000

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
137.95661.199
225.16040.886
319.23133.523
414.82127.920
512.27324.103
610.34219.343
78.85816.404
87.79613.967
96.94611.822
106.21510.390
115.6269.311
124.9668.227
134.5417.475
144.1946.779
153.7926.075
163.4755.559
173.2165.002
183.0064.481
192.7674.058
202.5493.748
212.3553.465
222.2083.170
232.0662.976
241.9162.708
251.7682.549
261.6502.418
271.5472.228
281.4342.085
291.3371.926
301.2571.761
311.1701.619
321.0751.482
331.0081.380
340.9331.283
350.8521.157
360.7891.062
370.7280.972
380.6460.892
390.5760.829
400.5330.749
410.4740.676
420.4260.624
430.3940.582
440.3530.526
450.3190.478
460.2820.427
470.2440.382
480.2130.326
490.1840.285
500.1530.243
510.1260.207
520.0970.172
530.0600.132
540.0400.096
550.0170.062
560.0000.022
570.0000.000
580.0000.000
590.0000.000
600.0000.000
610.0000.000
620.0000.000
630.0000.000
640.0000.000
650.0000.000
660.0000.000
670.0000.000
680.0000.000
690.0000.000
700.0000.000
710.0000.000
720.0000.000
730.0000.000
740.0000.000
750.0000.000
760.0000.000
770.0000.000
780.0000.000
790.0000.000
800.0000.000
810.0000.000
820.0000.000
830.0000.000
840.0000.000
850.0000.000
860.0000.000
870.0000.000
880.0000.000
890.0000.000
900.0000.000
910.0000.000
920.0000.000
930.0000.000
940.0000.000
950.0000.000
960.0000.000
970.0000.000
980.0000.000
990.0000.000


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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