Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Swan Creek at Swanfels


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Product list for Swan Creek at Swanfels


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Exceedance probability for Swan Creek at Swanfels( Jul 2014 )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
100.5932.171
200.3521.071
300.2360.668
400.1680.425
500.1190.284
600.0830.181
700.0550.115
800.0300.066
900.0100.025

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
12.11210.665
21.4856.799
31.2195.590
41.0564.728
50.9304.164
60.8213.476
70.7413.054
80.6722.701
90.6292.386
100.5932.171
110.5622.005
120.5171.836
130.4911.716
140.4641.602
150.4451.485
160.4221.397
170.4041.299
180.3851.206
190.3681.129
200.3521.071
210.3381.017
220.3260.960
230.3120.922
240.3010.868
250.2870.836
260.2760.809
270.2670.769
280.2580.738
290.2480.704
300.2360.668
310.2270.636
320.2170.604
330.2110.580
340.2040.558
350.1990.528
360.1920.504
370.1870.482
380.1790.462
390.1740.446
400.1680.425
410.1610.406
420.1560.392
430.1490.380
440.1440.365
450.1390.352
460.1350.337
470.1310.324
480.1260.308
490.1230.296
500.1190.284
510.1160.272
520.1120.262
530.1070.249
540.1030.238
550.0990.227
560.0960.214
570.0920.206
580.0890.199
590.0860.191
600.0830.181
610.0810.171
620.0780.164
630.0750.158
640.0710.150
650.0680.144
660.0650.139
670.0630.133
680.0600.127
690.0570.120
700.0550.115
710.0520.109
720.0490.104
730.0470.099
740.0440.094
750.0420.089
760.0400.084
770.0370.079
780.0350.075
790.0320.071
800.0300.066
810.0280.061
820.0260.057
830.0240.052
840.0220.048
850.0200.045
860.0180.041
870.0160.036
880.0140.033
890.0120.029
900.0100.025
910.0080.022
920.0060.018
930.0040.013
940.0020.009
950.0000.006
960.0000.002
970.0000.000
980.0000.000
990.0000.000


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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