Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Swan Creek at Swanfels


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Product list for Swan Creek at Swanfels


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Exceedance probability for Swan Creek at Swanfels( Aug 2014 )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
100.2112.278
200.1041.056
300.0580.610
400.0340.360
500.0190.225
600.0100.134
700.0040.081
800.0000.045
900.0000.018

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
11.1357.707
20.7785.820
30.5775.097
40.4584.515
50.3754.096
60.3233.533
70.2843.155
80.2532.819
90.2302.503
100.2112.278
110.1922.101
120.1811.916
130.1651.783
140.1541.656
150.1411.524
160.1311.424
170.1231.314
180.1161.209
190.1101.121
200.1041.056
210.0980.995
220.0920.931
230.0870.889
240.0820.829
250.0780.793
260.0730.763
270.0690.720
280.0650.686
290.0610.649
300.0580.610
310.0550.576
320.0520.543
330.0490.519
340.0460.495
350.0430.464
360.0410.440
370.0390.417
380.0370.397
390.0360.381
400.0340.360
410.0320.341
420.0300.328
430.0280.317
440.0270.302
450.0250.289
460.0240.275
470.0230.263
480.0220.248
490.0210.237
500.0190.225
510.0180.215
520.0170.205
530.0160.194
540.0150.184
550.0140.174
560.0130.163
570.0130.156
580.0120.150
590.0110.143
600.0100.134
610.0090.126
620.0080.121
630.0080.115
640.0070.109
650.0060.104
660.0060.100
670.0050.096
680.0040.090
690.0040.085
700.0040.081
710.0030.077
720.0020.073
730.0020.069
740.0020.065
750.0010.061
760.0010.058
770.0010.054
780.0000.051
790.0000.048
800.0000.045
810.0000.041
820.0000.038
830.0000.035
840.0000.032
850.0000.030
860.0000.027
870.0000.025
880.0000.023
890.0000.020
900.0000.018
910.0000.015
920.0000.013
930.0000.011
940.0000.008
950.0000.006
960.0000.004
970.0000.002
980.0000.000
990.0000.000


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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