Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Swan Creek at Swanfels


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Product list for Swan Creek at Swanfels


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Probability distribution for Swan Creek at Swanfels(  )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile0.7710.146
Median2.2340.567
Mean5.1022.193
75% Quartile6.1832.113
Interquartile Range5.4121.967

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
137.16821.397
227.43016.221
324.10614.225
421.23512.614
518.62711.446
617.1599.871
716.0518.810
814.9837.861
914.1246.963
1013.4286.325
1112.5975.821
1211.7385.294
1311.1764.914
1410.6574.552
159.9334.176
169.4553.893
178.9783.580
188.6503.281
198.2323.034
207.8332.849
217.4742.679
227.1402.499
236.8382.379
246.4712.213
256.1832.113
265.9582.030
275.7281.909
285.4911.817
295.3111.714
305.1241.607
314.9321.513
324.6941.423
334.5591.355
344.4301.290
354.2551.205
364.0801.141
373.8851.079
383.7181.024
393.5870.980
403.4260.925
413.2640.874
423.1080.838
432.9550.809
442.8370.769
452.7160.735
462.6230.698
472.4910.666
482.4190.626
492.3230.597
502.2340.567
512.1630.540
522.0840.514
531.9850.486
541.9120.459
551.8280.433
561.7640.404
571.7030.387
581.6330.370
591.5700.353
601.4980.331
611.4330.310
621.3830.295
631.3270.282
641.2830.266
651.2210.254
661.1650.242
671.1190.232
681.0740.219
691.0270.205
700.9840.196
710.9360.184
720.8950.175
730.8500.164
740.8130.155
750.7710.146
760.7360.138
770.6920.129
780.6520.121
790.6100.114
800.5740.105
810.5340.097
820.4990.090
830.4720.082
840.4460.076
850.4130.071
860.3780.064
870.3450.057
880.3100.052
890.2830.047
900.2490.041
910.2210.035
920.1970.030
930.1740.024
940.1490.018
950.1170.014
960.0960.010
970.0740.004
980.0460.000
990.0170.000


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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