Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Swan Creek at Swanfels


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Product list for Swan Creek at Swanfels


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Probability distribution for Swan Creek at Swanfels(  )

Basic Statistics
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile0.239
Median0.731
Mean2.196
75% Quartile2.138
Interquartile Range1.898

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
123.364
216.015
313.482
411.590
510.308
68.699
77.688
86.829
96.052
105.518
115.104
124.678
134.375
144.088
153.790
163.567
173.320
183.083
192.886
202.738
212.601
222.456
232.358
242.221
252.138
262.069
271.967
281.889
291.801
301.708
311.627
321.547
331.486
341.428
351.351
361.292
371.235
381.183
391.142
401.090
411.041
421.006
430.977
440.938
450.904
460.867
470.834
480.793
490.763
500.731
510.703
520.676
530.644
540.616
550.587
560.554
570.535
580.516
590.496
600.471
610.446
620.429
630.413
640.394
650.379
660.365
670.351
680.335
690.318
700.306
710.291
720.278
730.264
740.252
750.239
760.228
770.216
780.205
790.195
800.182
810.170
820.160
830.148
840.138
850.130
860.120
870.109
880.101
890.092
900.082
910.073
920.063
930.052
940.041
950.033
960.024
970.013
980.004
990.000


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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